Aviation Week & Space Technology

Private industry could be prepared to go where NASA fears to tread and develop a spaceplane to replace the space shuttle and ferry crews to and from the International Space Station. But if industry succeeds, it will be thanks to decades of work by the space agency on lifting-body reentry vehicles.

Military engines are big business, a reality underlined by the controversy over the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter’s alternate engine that raged throughout 2010. By year-end, Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine was flying on all three variants of the F-35, while General Electric and Rolls-Royce were ground testing their rival F136 in both conventional-takeoff-and-landing (CTOL) and short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing (Stovl) versions and planning a first flight in the F-35 in December 2011.

Increased persistence will be a key theme in 2011 as a new generation of unmanned aircraft takes to the air, from hybrid airships to hydrogen-fueled high-fliers. The year will also see the first flights of up to three stealthy unmanned strike demonstrators as operators strive to assess how far, and how fast, autonomous technology can be developed to augment, and perhaps replace, manned aircraft across a broad range of missions.

Increased support for European launchers and approval of the International Space Station lifetime extension will be at the top of the European Space Agency’s playbook for 2011, despite a continued spending freeze.

Republicans on the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology named a freshman Mississippi congressman who represents many workers at NASA’s Stennis Space Center as chairman of the subcommittee overseeing NASA. Rep. Steven Palazzo will chair the subcommittee on space and aeronautics. The panel’s Republicans include veterans James Sensenbrenner (Wis.), a former chairman of the full science panel, and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher(Calif.), as well as freshman Mo Brooks of Huntsville, Ala., home of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.

Should the government be allowed to declare a contractor in default and then invoke a secrecy privilege to withhold information the contractor says it needs to dispute that finding in court? Two decades after the Pentagon canceled the Navy’s A-12 Avenger II stealth aircraft, the fight over who is at fault for the program’s delays and cost overruns has brought that question before the U.S. Supreme Court. Last week, justices on the court sharply questioned lawyers on both sides of the dispute.

During 2010, manufacturers began to report that conditions were stabilizing in the civil rotorcraft market, though the general consensus is that growth cannot be expected until 2012 or later.

Ever since Boeing absorbed McDonnell Douglas in the late 1990s, the large-airliner industry has been dominated by an Airbus/Boeing duopoly that has enjoyed nearly unchallenged market supremacy. This situation has changed, with the two aerospace giants now facing serious challenges from new entrants to the market. And the emergence of more competitors is driving development and production decisions in Toulouse and Seattle.

Globalization, new technologies, fierce competition, winners and losers, beginnings and endings. There will be no shortage of interesting developments in the aerospace and defense industry this year. Here are 11 to keep an eye on.

Light helicopters widely used for training and tasks ranging from cattle wrangling to urban policing are typically powered by piston engines or small turbines. Piston power is threatened by the diminishing accessibility of avgas worldwide; and while turbines burn widely available jet fuel, they are more expensive and less fuel-efficient.

“Pilot shortage” is a threat that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality—except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply. Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Brazil may shelve its F-X2 fighter competition among the Boeing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale and Saab Gripen. Meanwhile, the government has given approval for Embraer to complete overhauls of air force AMX fighters. The company plans to fly and deliver the first of the structurally enhanced AMX prototypes next year. The program is a follow-on to electronics upgrades of 43 of 56 AMXs. The air force also is set to receive a small number of Elbit Systems Hermes 450 unmanned aircraft through the Israeli company’s Brazil-based subsidiary.

Strong commercial aircraft orders in 2010 are a sign the industry is beginning its recovery from the global economic downturn. As a result, Forecast International expects engine production to increase starting in 2011. Large backlogs were maintained through the downturn, putting original equipment manufacturers in a good position for the turn-around. At the same time engine companies have continued to develop technology aimed at increasing fuel efficiency while lowering noise and emissions.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) says it needs to make only three modifications to the Dragon capsule, which it flew to orbit and recovered last month, so it can be ready to deliver crewmembers to the International Space Station (ISS).

We need better wheels.

The ever-optimistic hypersonics community is hoping for clear-cut success in 2011 as it again flies the X-51A Waverider scramjet demonstrator and rocket-boosted HTV-2 hypersonic glider. The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s second Boeing X-51 will attempt to breach the Mach 5 barrier in March after modifications following the first flight last May.

Orbital Sciences is integrating the 1,160-lb. Glory climate-change satellite it built for NASA onto a Taurus XL launcher at Vandenberg AFB, Calif., in preparation for a Feb. 23 flight. Besides building the spacecraft and launcher, Orbital will provide mission control from its Dulles, Va., headquarters. Glory is to be lifted into the high-inclination “A-Train” orbit of spacecraft conducting long-term climate-change studies of Earth’s oceans, land surfaces and atmosphere.

Engineers and managers at NASA are sure to change their new reference vehicle designs for the government’s next heavy-lift and human-spaceflight vehicles, because they’re already saying they don’t have enough money to carry them out. But key senators are insisting that they do.

Chromalloy’s $30-million investment in a new casting facility here signals its fine-tuned strategy to focus on engine parts that have higher engineering barriers to entry. These parts typically feature longer lead times, so Chromalloy plans to differentiate itself through technology and faster turnaround time, says Armand Lauzon, Jr., Chromalloy president and Sequa CEO.

Yassine Herraz, maintenance planning and packaging manager at Royal Air Maroc, has been awarded a scholarship by AJ Walter Aviation for the MScAircraft Maintenance Management degree course sponsored by the company and organized by City University, London.

Attaining a top speed of 40 kt,. AeroVironment’s Global Observer GO-1 long-endurance unmanned air vehicle has flown for the first time powered by a hydrogen-fueled propulsion system.

NASA’s Kepler orbiting observatory has located its first Earth-like planet beyond the Solar System, but the planet is so hot that it streams flecks of silicon and iron into space like a comet’s tail. Designated Kepler-10b, the planet is 1.4 times the size of Earth but orbits its star, called Kepler-10, at a distance 20 times closer than Mercury is to our Sun. Radiation from the star prevents -10B from having an atmosphere, and because it constantly presents the same face to its star, the surface is a 2,500F molten ocean, hotter than a lava flow.

Taiwan’s AIDC has instituted a trial production run at a new composites plant on which it is staking its future as a supplier to global civil aerospace programs. In building the plant, the state-owned manufacturer is undertaking a broad push to upgrade its technology and to prepare to build larger composite parts. Its key market is programs for civil aircraft with up to 100 seats.

Bobby Braun, NASA chief technologist, has been selected to receive the Von Karman Lectureship in Astronautics Award, given by the American Institute for Aeronautics . Braun was recognized for advancing the understanding of the challenge of Mars entry, descent and landing, and for the development of systems concepts and technologies enabling Martian exploration programs.

Bad weather and the need to work out individual issues have combined to push the National Reconnaissance Office’s L-49 launch from Vandenberg AFB, Calif., back to Jan. 20. The postponement also delays the debut of the Delta IV Heavy rocket at Vandenberg.