A new Aviation Week Intelligence Network forecast predicts worldwide deliveries of 8,683 business jets and 2,877 turboprops from 2019-2028, exhibiting a 1.4% annual growth rate.

The forecast estimates worldwide delivery of 792 business jets in 2019, growing to 917 in 2028.

The world’s business turbine-powered aircraft fleet, meanwhile, is forecasted to expand from 31,300 aircraft in 2019 to nearly 35,600 by 2028, it said, with deliveries of ultra-long-range jets producing the most revenue of any aircraft category at $104.7 billion, followed in a distant second place by super-midsize jets at $33.3 billion and large-cabin jets in third place at $30.6 billion.

Textron Aviation is expected to deliver the most units worldwide during the decade, at 25% of deliveries worth $32.1 billion at retail prices, the Aviation Week data said.

North America will continue to lead the world in business aircraft fleet strength and deliveries, fueled in part by an increase in aircraft retirements. In North America, the forecast predicts deliveries of 5,986 business jets and 2,024 turboprops worth $126.1 billion over the 10-year period.

The Cirrus Vision Jet, HondaJet and Bombardier Challenger 350 are expected to take the top three slots in deliveries in North America over the decade, followed by the Pilatus PC-12, Pilatus PC-24, Citation Latitude, Embraer Phenom 300, TBM 900 series, Piper PA-46 and Citation M2.

“For the 2019 business aviation forecast, we find that the sector, while showing recent positive underlying signals for market growth of the in-service fleet, will experience moderate fleet growth across all elements into the next decade,” said Brian Kough, senior director, forecasts & aerospace insights, Aviation Week Intelligence Network.

Demand is fueled in part by new models under development, Kough said. Aircraft retirements accelerated by compliance with the FAA’s mandate for ADS-B equipage, a cornerstone of NextGen air traffic modernization, will also help stimulate demand for new aircraft.

The North American business turbine-powered aircraft fleet is expected to grow from 20,400 aircraft in 2019 to nearly 23,800 by 2028 – an above-average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7%, Kough said.

Deliveries of business jets and turboprops to the Asia-Pacific region are forecasted to total 373 from 2019-2028, with 32 deliveries in 2019 rising to 47 in 2028. Deliveries to Western Europe, meanwhile, are expected to total 1,650 for the period, with 157 deliveries in 2019 rising to 170 in 2028.

MRO Demand

Over the next 10 years, business turbine-powered aircraft are forecasted to create $83.1 billion in demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services, with the top-five type certificate holders generating 92% of the total, the forecast says.

Demand for MRO services in North America, meanwhile, is predicted to grow from $6.6 billion in 2019 to $8.1 billion in 2028, an average 2.2% annual growth rate. That compares to 2.6% annual growth worldwide for aftermarket services, despite new and efficient engines playing a larger role, it says.

Textron Aviation is expected to hold the largest share of the MRO market in North America with 36%, followed by Bombardier with 22% and Gulfstream with 18.