Short-term MRO Demand Declines

While accurately predicting what the MRO market will look like due to the COVID-19 pandemic even by the end of this year is tricky, several scenarios hint at how it may play out.  After falling precipitously, airline travel may recover slowly rather than with a quick V shaped spike.  On top of that, not all aircraft and engines will return, and those that do, may not be operating at 2018-2019 levels.
 
Without flight hours, utilization-based scheduled maintenance will decline; however, calendar-based service intervals remain for parked, but not stored fleets.  MRO dollar demand shrinks and recovers depending on how various scenarios play out.  Immediate, short-term MRO demand is expected to decline between 30-60% in 2020.  Over the next 4 years, MRO demand could shrink between $54 - $122 billion depending on how utilization is affected.