Airbus announced on February 14 that production of the A380, a program beset by an underwhelming order book, will cease from 2021.The aircraft entered into service in 2007.
According to Aviation Week data, the A380 aftermarket is estimated to be worth $27.6 billion from this year to 2028. Its MRO growth rate is measured at 4.1% year on year during that period.
Stored Aircraft To Return To Service By 2023
Around half of the aircraft stored in the early stages of the pandemic are expected to return to service by 2023, according to Aviation Week Network's latest Civil Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
A Modifications Boom is Anticipated
Modifying the A380 to suit operator needs could lead to a surge of work in this field. Aviation Week predicts $7.6 billion worth of spend in the A380 aftermarket will be on modifications from 2019 to 2028 - around 28%.
Middle East a Hotbed of A380 Aircraft
The Middle East has long been a hotbed of A380 operators, with the region home to its biggest customer in Emirates along with Qatar and Etihad. By 2028, 163 of the superjumbo are expected to be operating in the region, comfortably more than the next region Asia-Pacific, which will be home to 69 A380s.
This Density will also be Reflected in MRO Spend
Etihad Airways Engineering
The high density of A380s in the Middle East will see the region also dominate for MRO spend on the aircraft. Aviation Week forecasts $15.5 billion on A380 work over the next decade, comfortably higher than Asia Pacific ($6.7 billion) and Western Europe ($4.5 billion).
A Flourishing Secondary Market?
The likes of Singapore Airlines have started to move their A380s on, with two being sent for teardown at Tarmac Aerosave in France last year. This has led to speculation that others may follow suit, leading to A380 aircraft going back into the market.
One of the big question marks hanging over the A380 since its debut in 2007 have been around the residual values airlines so often focus on. This has impacted its secondary market, which to date, has seen one aircraft leased by Portugal's Hi Fly (pictured) and more recently, a new subsidiary by Malaysia Airlines dedicated to services for Muslim pilgrims.