Aviation Week's Fleet & MRO Forecast data estimates 507 Boeing 747s are in operation this year. As Boeing has reduced production over the past few years, the jumbo will become more scarce over the next decade. By 2027, Aviation Week predicts 283 of the aircraft will be flying.
Airline Retirements
After peaking at more than 1,000 in the global fleet in 1998, the 747 has started leaving airline fleets at an increased rate in recent years. Delta said goodbye to its last 747-400 in January this year, while the following month, fellow U.S. carrier United Airlines sent the last of its 16 747-400s to the desert.
A Declining MRO Market
Naturally, as the global fleet decreases, growth in the 747 MRO segment will also shrink. Aviation Week projects a negative -5.9% compound annual growth rate from this year through to 2027.
MRO Value
Credit: Lufthansa
The overall MRO market value for the 747 however will still be sizeable. Aviation Week predicts it will stand at $27.1 billion over the next 10 years.
Engine Spend
38% of MRO market spend will be directed towards engines, Aviation Week predicts.
Asia-Pacific Will Lead MRO Demand
The most MRO demand will be generated from the Asia-Pacific region to the tune of $8.2 billion over the next decade. Commercial operators in the region include Korean Air, China Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
For more of Aviation Week's Fleet & MRO Forecast data, visit the website.
As Aviation Week's MRO Editor EMEA, James Pozzi covers the latest industry news from the European region and beyond. He also writes in-depth features on the commercial aftermarket for Inside MRO.
