VILNIUS, Lithuania—Baltic and Eastern European carriers are expected to take delivery of about 870 new aircraft over the next decade and retire about 380, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2024 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
This means the Eastern Europe in-service fleet should grow from 1,080 aircraft in 2024 to 1,600 in 2033, says Dan Williams, Aviation Week Network’s director of fleet data services, speaking at MRO BEER.
While the fleet will grow at a 4.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), its seat forecast is 4.5% CAGR due to aircraft upgauging.
The correlating MRO demand over the decade for the Eastern Europe region is $32 billion, without inflation or engine technical upgrades due to new-engine teething problems.
To put this in context, globally carriers will take delivery of 22,100 new aircraft over the decade, with narrowbodies accounting for 78% of those.
Globally, expect 10,200 aircraft to retire over the period, Williams says.
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