Comparing MRO Demand Across Segments

Demand for aftermarket services is generally increasing, so it is easy to see why investors are interested in this part of the market heading into the new year.

In 2023, the combined MRO market for business aviation, civil, commercial and military helicopters should be valued at $233 billion, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2023 Fleet & MRO Forecasts.

Military MRO is expected to generate the largest piece of the pie, at $127.7 billion, followed by commercial MRO at $86.7 billion.

• Some MRO segments surpass pre-pandemic levels
• Business aviation MRO should see an uptick in 2023

While there are about 14,000 more military aircraft than commercial ones, the 56,774 military aircraft are operated for 13.5 million flight hours and commercial aircraft are operated for 83.3 million flight hours, so the cost per military flight hour is much higher.

Companies in the aviation industry can expect field maintenance to generate 42% of all military MRO expenditures, followed by components, engines and airframes.

For civil MRO, engine maintenance dominates demand, with 45% of the total, followed by components, line maintenance, modifications and airframes, Aviation Week data shows.

With the exception of helicopter and business aviation MRO, each segment is expected to generate more aftermarket revenue than was predicted in the pre-pandemic 2020 forecast (issued in late 2019). The pre-pandemic forecast projected that commercial MRO would generate $82.5 billion in 2020 and military MRO $83.3 billion.

While MRO demand for business aviation increased in 2018, 2019 and 2020, Aviation Week forecasts show it dropped in 2021, when corporate travel was limited due to closed borders and virtual workplaces. With larger-cabin aircraft parked or generating very few hours, maintenance was often done on an hourly basis.

For 2023, Aviation Week projects business aircraft flight hours to increase to 8.5 million, which equates to about 246 per aircraft.

For each of the forecasts, the aircraft expected to generate the most MRO demand in 2023 will be, respectively: the Boeing 737-800 (commercial), Sikorsky S-70/H-60 (military), Airbus H130 (helicopter) and Bombardier Challenger 300/350/3500 (business).