MRJ delay is even worse news than it appears

The first delivery of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet is now scheduled to occur around the same time as the first delivery of Embraer’s first E-Jet E2. That’s bad news for Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp., which has just pushed the MRJ’s first delivery to launch operator All Nippon Airways to “approximately” the 2018 second quarter, or more than four years later than the first delivery was supposed to occur. That means the E190-E2, which Embraer plans to roll out in February, will soon catch up with the MRJ’s timeline.

If you’re an airline looking for a next-generation regional jet powered by Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines, why would you choose the repeatedly delayed MRJ over the E2, which is based on a platform that has successfully been in service for more than a decade? The answer used to be that you could get the MRJ years earlier, but that is no longer the case. And who would be surprised at this point if the E2 actually beats the MRJ into service?

I’m afraid the news may be even worse than that for Mitsubishi Aircraft. All five aircraft slated to be in the MRJ flight test program are MRJ90s, but it increasingly looks like that’s the wrong size aircraft for what the market is demanding. I’ve written extensively about the scope clause problems the MRJ90 could have in the US regional airline market. There could be a bit of a reprieve, though, because US major airlines—including United Airlines and Delta Air Lines—are now signaling an interest in putting 100-seat size aircraft into mainline service. But that’s 100 seats including domestic first class and premium economy seats.

The MRJ90 is designed to seat 92 passengers in an all-economy layout with 29 in. pitch seats. That would mean airlines like United and Delta would want a stretch version, the MRJ100, which is something Mitsubishi Aircraft executives have talked a lot about—but they have never committed to it. The MRJ100 would theoretically be a competitor to the Bombardier CS100.

The smaller MRJ70, which would meet US scope clause weight requirements, has always been planned to enter service a year after the MRJ90’s service entry. So if the MRJ90 is now entering service in 2018, then the MRJ70 would be in line for a 2019 service entry. And the MRJ100? 2020 at the earliest?

It should be noted, however, that there’s no evidence Mitsubishi Aircraft has started building the first MRJ70. When asked directly at a 2015 Paris Air Show press conference by Low-Fare & Regional Airlines editor Bernie Baldwin whether the first metal cut had been made for the MRJ70, Mitsubishi Aircraft executives literally had no answer. (Bernie, I think, is the only journalist who has sat through as many MRJ briefings as I have.)

So all of the eggs are now in the MRJ90’s basket. The MRJ90 achieved first flight in November three-and-a-half years behind schedule and then, after just three test flights, the flight test schedule was considerably slowed down and first delivery was delayed by another year. And it may end up being the least-ideally sized of the three MRJ variants!

So the delay announced Dec. 24, as bad as it appears, actually is worse than it appears because it effectively pushes back the MRJ70 and MRJ100 to 2019 and 2020, respectively, and that’s in a best-case scenario from here on. The 100-seat size aircraft market looks more and more like a sweet spot, one in which an MRJ100 should be a contender. But no airline making a 100-seat size aircraft decision in the near future would even consider the MRJ, given the new delay, the E190-E2 rolling out and the CSeries now certified.

Sorry to deliver bad tidings on Christmas Eve. But that’s how I see it.