Too Many Unknowns To Make Reliable Post-COVID Recovery Predictions | コロナ危機からの回復を正確に予測するには、未知の要素が多すぎる



しかしパンデミックの不確実性により、これまで何度も、何ヶ月もの間、予定通りの運航が実現したことはなかった。運航予定が確実なものになるためには、ワクチン接種が進むことで新規感染の急拡大が発生しない水準に達するか、たとえ急拡大が起きても、ロックダウンや渡航制限が必要ない状態になることが条件だとAviation Week編集部は考えている。


With vaccinations being rolled out globally and countries slowly exiting lockdowns, airlines are anticipating an uptick in summer.


But months after months, these expected schedules have not really happened due to the uncertainties of the pandemic. In order for traffic forecasts to finally stick, Aviation Week editors think that vaccination levels have to reach a point where COVID-19 spikes no longer occur, or if they do, lockdowns or travel restrictions are no longer needed.

While the risk of such restrictions remains, it is impossible for airlines to know whether an artificial slump in demand is just around the corner. Even in the longer term, there still are too many unknowns related to a post-COVID recovery to allow reliable predictions.