Farnborough beckons

As the aviation world gears up for the Farnborough Airshow, here are a few thoughts on what the show might bring.

One talking point will definitely be the Brexit vote and its possible aerospace ramifications, especially given the location of the show, but my personal feeling is that it’s too early to see any major impact at the show itself.

The bottom line is that things are still too uncertain, although that may bring its own consequences. On the plus side, non-UK attendees are likely to see an immediate gain from the devaluation of the pound during their stay.

In terms of orders, I have a feeling this show will be a quiet one – but not silent. For example, the Boeing Iran Air deal could be formally announced, although that is looking increasingly unlikely as it faces a political challenge in the US.

We could also see a few lessor orders; maybe something from Avolon which has cash to spend after joining HNA Group. Lessor Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC), which came under new ownership last year, has also been very busy buying up Embraers and Embraer lessors. Could we perhaps see an E2 order from them at the show?

It's now been confirmed that the first Embraer E2 test aircraft - an E190-E2 - will be attending, so that will be one to look out for, along with the Boeing 737 MAX, which is also making its air show debut.

On the whole, this is a pretty good sign of where we are at in the cycle. Most of the manufacturers have their hands full, with new products just having entered service – such as the Airbus A320neo, Bombardier CSeries 100 and COMAC ARJ21 - or being at a fairly advanced stage of development – such as the E2, 737 MAX and MRJ.

With the other A350 variants, A330neo and 777X following on behind these, I think that leaves us in limbo for any major aircraft program announcements. Possible candidates, such as the A380neo or Boeing’s 757 replacement, look unlikely for this show, although we may well see some product tweaks and improvements.

Of course, none of these predictions are certain. The only thing which can be guaranteed during any air show is extreme weather. Let’s hope it’s is at the positive end of the UK spectrum and that people aren’t too deterred by the turbulent political climate.