Trump Moves Prompt Some International F-35 Buyers To Reconsider

Calls are mounting in Canada and Europe to shun the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter and other U.S. defense exports amid a backlash against controversial foreign policy changes in Washington.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is locked in an escalating trade war with the U.S., ordered a review of the F-35A procurement within hours of his swearing-in ceremony on March 14.

• Canadian and Portuguese officials raise concerns
• Ottawa’s F-35 review comes eight years after its Boeing order cancellation

On the same day, Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo questioned the wisdom of acquiring F-35s in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies on trade and doubts about NATO. However, Lisbon has not yet budgeted for a Lockheed F-16A/B replacement, and Melo spoke on behalf of a now fallen government.

The growing pressure from existing and potential F-35 customers comes at a delicate time for the Lockheed-led program. The fighter’s global supply chain is already struggling with modernization delays and facing uncertainty about the Trump administration’s commitment to the U.S. order plan, which accounts for roughly 60% of overall scheduled deliveries each year. The international orderbook has provided a reliable backstop for fluctuating U.S. orders over the years, even after the removal of Turkey from the program and subsequent cancellation of Ankara’s 100 orders over concerns about exposing the F-35 to advanced Russian military radars delivered to Turkey.

At the same time, the calls in Ottawa and European capitals have exposed the complexities of unwinding foreign arms deals, which often come with penalties for breaking contracts and risk depriving domestic participants in the program’s industrial supply chain of future revenues. Any disruption also imperils scheduled fleet replacement plans as demand rises for additional fighter capacity and lengthy queues are in place for alternative aircraft.

Despite those possibilities, Trump’s targeted tariffs against Canada and calls to annex the northern neighbor as the 51st state have proven at least equally alarming.

“[The F-35] was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives—whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35,” Defense Minister Bill Blair told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. in a March 14 interview. “The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada.”

The situation could set up a repeat of a 2017 episode in the circuitous history of the Canadian fighter modernization program. Late that year, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau canceled a plan to order 18 Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets as a stopgap replacement for the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) oldest F/A-18A/Bs. The cancellation came after Boeing launched an ultimately unsuccessful legal challenge against Bombardier over allegations of unfair pricing for airliners. Bombardier was forced to sell off its commercial aircraft division to Airbus before Boeing lost the case in a U.S. courtroom, prompting furor in Canada.

Trudeau instead ordered 18 F/A-18A/Bs from the Royal Australian Air Force as interim replacements for even older aircraft and then launched the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) to select a contractor to deliver 88 new fighters to Canadian bases on a tight timeline between 2028 and 2032, with deliveries to training bases in the U.S. to start in 2026.

Blair’s newly launched review re-opens the door for the FFCP competition also-rans. Dassault and the Eurofighter consortium participated in the early stages but quickly withdrew from the bidding process. The French manufacturer cited concerns about Ottawa’s requirements for interoperability and intelligence-sharing with the U.S. military. Canadian officials eliminated the Super Hornet bid during the last phase, leaving only the Saab F-39E Gripen in the race.

Had the Swedish offer won the contract, Saab would have assembled Gripen fighters in Canada through a partnership with Halifax-based IMP Aerospace. If Blair revives a competition to deliver some portion of the 88-aircraft requirement for the FFCP contract, Carney’s government could consider local assembly of Gripens or other fighters.

The impact of Trump’s rhetoric and actions could extend beyond the F-35 in Canada’s security relationship with its neighbor, NATO ally and partner in the binational North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). In a possible case of coincidental timing, Carney announced on March 18 the selection of Australia’s Jindalee Operational Radar Network to bolster surveillance gaps in NORAD’s North Warning System. The award passed over a rival U.S. option—the RTX Next Generation Over-the-Horizon Radar.

Politicians are taking aim at other U.S. defense contracts with the Canadian military. Jagmeet Singh, leader of the minority New Democratic Party, released a statement calling for cancellation of orders for 16 Boeing P-8A maritime patrol aircraft, which the Canadian government selected over a rival bid by Bombardier Defense and General Dynamics Mission Systems-Canada.

Not all Canadian industry leaders support a ban on F-35 orders. Bombardier CEO Eric Martel warned at a Montreal business event on March 17 that more Canadian financial interests may be at stake than the $3 billion in contracts awarded to 30 domestic companies in Lockheed’s global F-35 supply chain. Bombardier itself delivers business jets to the U.S. Air Force and Army, which convert them into special-mission aircraft.

“Canceling the F-35s might be a good idea, but we need to think about it,” Martel said. “We have contracts with the Pentagon. Will there be reciprocity there?”

An order cancellation also could be devastating for the RCAF’s aging force structure. The F-35A was originally selected in 2009 to replace the CF-18 by then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper, but controversy arose over the lack of a competition immediately before the decision. By the time his government fell in the 2015 election, Harper still had not signed any orders. Trudeau’s new government voided the 2009 selection, setting in motion another lengthy selection process. Tru-deau’s government eventually came to the same conclusion Harper’s had made 13 years earlier and announced the F-35A selection in 2022.

But Trudeau’s deal set up a challenging, backloaded schedule for the acquisition. The contract called for 66 aircraft deliveries in 2030-32, an annual pace considerably faster than for any other F-35 operator outside the U.S. The plan could put significant pressure on Canada’s defense budget, which a 2023 report by the country’s Parliamentary Budget Officer forecast would total CAD$52.2 billion ($36.4 billion) by 2030.

As Blair continues reviewing future F-35 orders, work is underway on support infrastructure to receive the F-35. Canada’s National Defense Department has outlined plans to upgrade 12 bases around the country to host or support the aircraft, including building a new Quick Reaction Alert facility in Canadian Forces Base Cold Lake and new hangars for Cold Lake and Bagotville.

The Canadian review has reverberated among F-35 operators in Europe. Denmark in particular is caught in the geopolitical crossfire; Greenland, a Danish possession with self-rule, is another annexation target for Trump. Copenhagen has signed orders for all 27 F-35s in its program of record, but some Danish politicians are having second thoughts.

“As one of the decision-makers behind Denmark’s purchase of F35s, I regret it,” Rasmus Jarlov, a conservative member of parliament, posted on X, suggesting Trump could cut off the fleet’s weapons and spare parts in the event of a refusal to transfer Greenland to the U.S.

“Therefore, buying American weapons is a security risk that we cannot run,” Jarlov stated. “We will make enormous investments in air defense, fighter jets, artillery and other weapons in the coming years, and we must avoid American weapons if at all possible.”