Forecast: Western C4ISR Aircraft MRO By Family 2020-2029

Aviation Week Network forecasts that from 2020 to 2029, Western-built aircraft performing military C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance) missions will generate $63.2 billion in MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) demand. However, annual demand will decline 0.6% from 2020’s $6.28 billion, by 2029. These figures include fixed-wing aircraft specifically equipped to perform C4ISR missions against land and airborne targets—everything from utility aircraft with EO/IR devices to sophisticated electronic warfare platforms. Excluded are observation aircraft not specially equipped for C4ISR missions, dedicated search-and-rescue aircraft, and combat aircraft. 

The single largest source of MRO demand over the forecast will be the many aircraft based on Boeing's 707 family, which includes the E-3 Sentry, E-6 Mercury, and E-8 J-Stars. The 707 family will generate a quarter of the total demand over the forecast in MRO costs. The U.S. Air Force has begun reducing a number of its oldest aircraft fleets as a cost-saving measure. While not yet targeting its aged and expensive-to-maintain 707-based fleets, that possibility will grow with the MRO costs. The number two spot for MRO demand also belongs to Boeing aircraft, the 737-based E-7 and P-8. Largely due to the P-8, the 737 family will see its MRO demand rise with a 31.7% increase. The largest relative decline in MRO demand will be Lockheed Martin's C-130, decreasing 43% in 10 years. Numerous C-130H-based platforms will be retired such as the EC-130H Compass Call, which is being replatformed to the Gulfstream G1159-based EC-37B.

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) 2020 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast.
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