Aviation Week Forecasts: Western C4ISR Commercial Airliner Aircraft MRO 2020-2029

Aviation Week Network forecasts that from 2020 to 2029, Western-built commercial airliners performing military C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) missions will generate $20.7 billion in maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) demand, declining 4% over the decade. These figures only include aircraft categorized as commercial airliners that are specifically equipped to perform C4ISR missions against land and airborne targets—everything from aircraft equipped with just electro-optic/infrared (EO/IR) devices to sophisticated electronic warfare platforms. Excluded are observation aircraft not specially equipped for C4ISR missions, any dedicated search-and-rescue aircraft, and military VIP transports.

The single largest source of MRO demand over the forecast is the Boeing 707, which will produce a dominant 78.6% of the global forecast total. The 707 is the base airframe for 13 different C4ISR platforms around the globe, including the U.S.’s E-3, E-6, and E-8 fleets. Despite the dominance, the 707’s annual demand will decline 14.5% in the next 10 years. Boeing’s queen of the skies, the 747, will produce the second most MRO demand this decade, albeit a 10th of the 707. The 747 takes the lead in terms of MRO decline, shedding 33.5% of its demand by 2029 as the U.S. Air Force is expected to retire some of its smallest but most expensive-to-maintain fleets like the E-4. There is an estimated $330 million in MRO demand for yet-undecided military competitions and requirements that are assessed to be won by a commercial airliner C4ISR platform. While only 1.6% of the forecast total, it is 7.1% of the total in 2029, making it the second-largest source of MRO that year.

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) 2020 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast