Defense And Space Programs To Watch

NASA’s successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, will be the world’s most advanced space observatory. After an up-and-down development program that will cost the U.S. $8.8 billion, Webb will begin its mission in 2018, studying the origins of the universe and looking for signs of life on planets beyond the Solar System. The telescope is in the midst of thermal testing at Johnson Space Center in Texas to prove it can withstand the extreme temperature changes of space.

From there, it will be flown to Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems in California, where it will be integrated with a spacecraft bus and sunshield. Then it will embark on a 30-day journey by boat to Kourou, French Guiana. It is scheduled to launch on an Ariane 5 rocket in October 2018.

Britain and France are due to commence full-scale development work on two unmanned Future Combat Air System (FCAS) demonstrators toward the end of this year, following feasibility studies completed at the end of 2016. There do appear to be some headwinds, however, over what each nation wants to achieve with the aircraft. Britain would like it to be an experimental demonstrator, while the French would like something more operationally capable. The two demonstrators are due to fly in 2025, with the aim of moving into development of an operational system in the 2030s. The FCAS programs in each country also will look at manned alternatives.

Missiles are growing more and more sophisticated, and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ redesigned Spike missile is packing in new features, including a smart target tracker that has artificial intelligence features. The new Spike LR II is a multipurpose weapon that can be fired from vehicles, helicopters, ships and ground launchers. Not only does the Israeli company’s missile increase the range to up to 10 km (6.2 mi.) when fired from a helicopter, the missile was designed to counter targets with low-signature, time-sensitive characteristics using an embedded inertial measurement unit to target ground coordinates. And it has two warhead configurations: one that blasts through armor 30% more effectively and another that allows the gunner to control the fusing. 

Many nations with limited resources have figured out that exquisite fighter jets are not always optimal for irregular warfare and counterinsurgency operations when low-cost light-attack aircraft would do just fine. The U.S. Air Force has long resisted buying a dedicated light-attack fleet to relieve its high-end warplanes, even while trying unsuccessfully to retire the 1970s-era Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt. 

This could be about to change, with the service inviting manufacturers of the Textron Scorpion Jet and AT-6 Wolverine and Sierra Nevada Corp./Embraer A-29 Super Tucano to participate in light-attack demonstrations this summer. The OA-X demonstration could provide information for a light-attack acquisition, with the Air Force considering up to 300 aircraft.

The Super Tucano is built in Jacksonville, Florida, for the Afghan Air Force and Lebanon, but the production line needs new orders soon to remain viable. Meanwhile, Textron desperately needs launch customers for the Scorpion and AT-6.

MBDA’s Meteor air-breathing, beyond-visual-range, air-to-air missile is now in service with the Swedish Air Force’s fleet of JAS-39C/D Gripens, and integration on the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale is close to completion. On the latter two aircraft types, the weapon will likely be ready for use on the front line sometime during 2018. The weapon is also planned for integration on the F-35 in the coming years. The missile is theoretically without match, at least in the next 5-10 years, but will likely need advanced data links and electronically scanned radars for the current platforms to use it most effectively. How other nations such as China, Russia and the U.S. develop analogs or countermeasures could prove the best way to judge its impact.

In February, the Indian Space Research Organization sent 104 satellites into space on its Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle. In May, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) launched for the 11th time. And on June 5, the 640-ton GLSV Mk. 3 sent a 3.4-ton satellite into geostationary orbit. India has worked on the Mk. 3, known as “Fat Boy,” for 12 years. Powered by the indigenously developed main and bigger cryogenic CE-20 engine in its upper stage, the rocket can carry spacecraft weighing over 4 tons. This could establish India as a major player on the international space launch market. 

The F-35 makes its Paris Air Show debut this year, marking the first time the U.S. Air Force has sent a stealth aircraft to Le Bourget since the B-2’s brief visit in 1995, and the first time one has been displayed in the static park since the F-117 in 1991. The appearance comes on the heels of the F-35’s first European training deployment in April, where the aircraft trained with NATO allies across the region. Although France is not purchasing the F-35, its presence at the show is a win for Lockheed Martin as the company looks to boost international sales of the fifth-generation fighter. Belgium plans to select a new fighter to replace its 54 F-16s by 2018, and the F-35 is a leading candidate.

The KC-46A tanker is one of the most watched programs right now, as Boeing is on tap to deliver 18 aircraft and associated wing-aerial refueling pod systems by October 2018. Boeing Defense, Space and Security chief Leanne Caret says that keeping KC-46 on track is at the top of the company’s priority list. But due to design challenges, the delivery schedule for the initial aircraft is significantly tighter than usual, and the U.S. Government Accountability Office has expressed concerns that the schedule could slip.

Rocket Lab successfully launched its carbon-composite, liquid-fuel Electron vehicle into space for the first time May 25. The test flight, the first launch of an orbital-class vehicle from a private facility, took place from its New Zealand complex and will be followed by two further proving flights before commercial missions start later this year.

Although it did not achieve orbit as planned, Rocket Lab is confident of the next attempt. It aims to lower the cost of access to space by offering high-frequency launches several times a month. The two-stage Electron is designed to mainly place 150-kg (330-lb.) payloads, including small satellites and cubesats, into a variety of orbits, from 38 deg. to nominal 500-km (310-mi.) sun-synchronous orbits.

The U.S. Navy’s seventh Boeing P-8A Poseidon squadron, Patrol Sqdn. 4 (VP-4), has begun flight operations at NAS Whidbey Island in Washington, marking the halfway point in the service’s phaseout of the 1962-vintage Lockheed Martin P-3C.

The milestone comes amid strong international interest in the Boeing 737-based submarine hunter. In April, Norway announced plans to buy five P-8A aircraft to replace its P-3s, introduced in 1969, with delivery from 2021-22. New Zealand has also been approved by the U.S. State Department to buy four aircraft to replace its P-3Ks. 

Boeing has begun building the first two British P-8s for delivery by 2019. With more than 120 submarines due to be in operational service globally by 2020, Australia and India have both decided to expand their fleets, and the U.S. Navy recently bumped up its requirement to 117 production aircraft from 107. The P-8A will face competition from Saab’s new Swordfish MPA and others.

With three export orders in the bag and a fourth to be announced possibly later this year or in 2018, according to CEO Eric Trappier, Dassault’s Rafale is finally replicating the export success enjoyed by the earlier Mirage family. Work is now underway to develop the F4 configuration with enhanced communications and sensors, paving the way for upgraded weapons. The French defense ministry wants the F4 capability in service by 2025. The F3R capability currently being readied for 2018 will add the Meteor air-to-air missile to the aircraft’s inventory.

Is the U.S. Army-led Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program shaping into another multiservice, multinational project akin to the Joint Strike Fighter? Yes, it seems, but hopefully without the billions of dollars in cost overruns and delays that dogged the F-35.

The Army, Army Special Operations Aviation Command and Marine Corps are jointly defining their requirements for a future high-speed, long-range rotorcraft to eventually succeed utility and attack variants of the Sikorsky H-60 and Bell Helicopter H-1.

There is already strong interest in FVL from Australia, the Netherlands and the UK, and more will likely take notice once the Bell V-280 Valor and Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defiant begin flying during the next year. The Army has considered allowing international partners to buy into the development program, as was done with the F-35, or it could wait until the rotorcraft is fielded operationally before pursuing Foreign Military Sales. International buy-in could fortify FVL against the erratic acquisition, budgetary and policy decisions that often hamstrings U.S. defense procurement.

The V-280 will fly by September, and SB-1 first flight has slipped to early 2018. The Army's current plan would begin development in 2023 or 2024 and achieve initial operational capability in the 2030s. Bell believes its tiltrotor is mature enough to start development in 2019, about five years sooner.

With the world’s population demanding better, faster and cheaper bandwidth, makers of satellites have seen an opportunity to reach parts of the globe where terrestrial networks do not yet have a foothold. One of the pioneers in devising this kind of massive low-Earth-orbit (LEO) constellation is OneWeb. Founder Greg Wyler says the company is still on the “fast-track to bridge the digital divide” despite the fact that its planned merger with Intelsat is on the rocks. Airbus will begin building the initial 648-satellite fleet that will provide K_u-band connectivity and will test its initial “flatsats” at its manufacturing plant in Toulouse. It has broken ground on a production facility near the Kennedy Space Center. Full production is scheduled to start in 2018, the same year the company is expected to launch 10 production satellites. As soon as 2019, OneWeb plans to begin providing low-latency broadband services from LEO. 

With the signing of agreements in May, BAE Systems engineers now plan to move to Ankara to join Turkish Aerospace Industries colleagues to begin designing an indigenous twin-engine, fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The new aircraft would replace Turkish Air Force F-16s starting in 2029. Turkey wants to fly a prototype by 2023. In the coming weeks, expect an engine decision likely to favor a European OEM as Turkey pushes to have an aircraft that is virtually free of U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Turkey also is developing an active, electronically scanned array radar, avionics and weapons for the jet.

Lockheed Martin is looking for new international orders for the F-16 to extend the production line past the 2020s. But the company is not just selling the 1970s version of the F-16. The F-16V, or Block 70, adds Northrop Grumman’s APG-83 scalable, agile-beam active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar; a center pedestal display; a new advanced mission computer; a joint helmet-mounted cuing system; and the auto ground collision avoidance system. The new AESA radar is critical to the upgrade, delivering greater situational awareness, improved flexibility and quicker all-weather targeting than older models. It also provides F-16s with fifth-generation-fighter radar capabilities by leveraging hardware and software commonality with F-22 and F-35 AESA radars.

France, Germany, Italy and Spain have signed up to develop a multi-national medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned air system. Germany is leading the development through Airbus, which is likely to use its UAS development experience to produce an aircraft that might resemble the company’s Talarion design from the late 2000s. The plan is to produce a platform that could be fielded by 2025.

The U.S. Air Force’s aging special-mission aircraft fleet is ready for an overhaul. Not only is the service pursuing a replacement for its Lockheed Martin EC-130H-based  Compass Call electronic-attack aircraft, but it also is poised to select a contractor to replace its Northrop Grumman E-8-based Joint Stars program. And now the service is kicking off an analysis of what could be a multibillion-dollar program to replace the Boeing 747-based E-4B “Doomsday Plane” and the Navy’s Boeing 707-based E-6B Mercury fleet with a single “Survivable Airborne Operations Center.”

Contractors are in hot pursuit of each opportunity. Almost all of the Defense Department’s Cold War-era special-mission fleets are commercial derivatives. Boeing is currently protesting the Air Force’s choice of L3 Technologies for the 10-aircraft Compass Call contract and is in a stiff competition on the Joint Stars program with incumbents Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. They are offering Gulfstream G550 and Bombardier Global 6000 aircraft, respectively, as platforms. Plus, Boeing is positioning itself to replace all of the Air Force’s 50-year-old 707- and C-135-based fleets: the E-3 AWACS, OC-135 Open Skies, RC-135S Cobra Ball, RC-135U Combat Sent, RC-135V/W Rivet Joint  and WC-135 Constant Phoenix.

Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket has flown and landed five times with the same engine. The flights are moving the company toward its foray into space tourism, when the crew capsule—which seats six people—is planned to fly at a speed of more than Mach 3 across the Kaman Line, 100 km (62 mi.) above the Earth’s surface. Blue Origin President and CEO Jeff Bezos says the rocket company will begin flying test passengers “when it’s ready.” Its motto, “Grandam Ferociter,” means “step by step, ferociously,” which gives Blue Origin the time and space for delays. The latest timing for test flights with people is in 2018, with the first paying passengers following later that year.

The complex Airbus Military A400M airlifter program continues to struggle against a wave of bad news. Now in service with France, Germany, Malaysia, Spain, Turkey and the UK, Airbus still encounters difficulties in bringing the numerous tactical capabilities to front-line service. Last year, Airbus took a €2.2 billion ($2.5 billion) hit on its 2016 financial results as a result of late deliveries and penalties. Airbus has now begun negotiating with customer nations to loosen what CEO Tom Enders calls a “lopsided share of the risk.” Export orders remain a challenge, but Airbus has made progress with a potential sale to Indonesia, and a much-rumored contract with Egypt may still be in the offing.