Too Many Unknowns To Make Reliable Post-COVID Recovery Predictions | 未知因素太多导致无法对新冠疫情后的恢复作出准确预测


With vaccinations being rolled out globally and countries slowly exiting lockdowns, airlines are anticipating an uptick in summer.


但是几个月之后,由于疫情流行的不确定性,过去的预期事件并没有真正发生。为了使市场预测最终得以实现,《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的编辑们认为疫苗接种水平必须达到很高,直么到使疫情不再反复出现高点,只有这样各国才不再需要封锁边境或进行旅行限制。

But months after months, these expected schedules have not really happened due to the uncertainties of the pandemic. In order for traffic forecasts to finally stick, Aviation Week editors think that vaccination levels have to reach a point where COVID-19 spikes no longer occur, or if they do, lockdowns or travel restrictions are no longer needed.


While the risk of such restrictions remains, it is impossible for airlines to know whether an artificial slump in demand is just around the corner. Even in the longer term, there still are too many unknowns related to a post-COVID recovery to allow reliable predictions.