Too Many Unknowns To Make Reliable Post-COVID Recovery Predictions | 未知因素太多导致无法对新冠疫情后的恢复作出准确预测

随着疫苗在全球范围内推广接种，各国逐渐解除边境封锁，航空公司预计在2021年夏季航班需求会有所增加。

With vaccinations being rolled out globally and countries slowly exiting lockdowns, airlines are anticipating an uptick in summer.

但是几个月之后，由于疫情流行的不确定性，过去的预期事件并没有真正发生。为了使市场预测最终得以实现，《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的编辑们认为疫苗接种水平必须达到很高，直么到使疫情不再反复出现高点，只有这样各国才不再需要封锁边境或进行旅行限制。

But months after months, these expected schedules have not really happened due to the uncertainties of the pandemic. In order for traffic forecasts to finally stick, Aviation Week editors think that vaccination levels have to reach a point where COVID-19 spikes no longer occur, or if they do, lockdowns or travel restrictions are no longer needed.

当此类出行限制的风险仍然存在，航空公司仍然不可能提前预知这种基于人为因素的需求下滑是否即将来临。即使从长远来看，与疫情后恢复相关的未知因素仍然太多，仍然无法做出可靠的预测。

While the risk of such restrictions remains, it is impossible for airlines to know whether an artificial slump in demand is just around the corner. Even in the longer term, there still are too many unknowns related to a post-COVID recovery to allow reliable predictions.