While the long-term future of the manned combat aircraft is heavily debated, the future of the manned strategic bomber is fairly obvious: in the long run, it is doomed. The U.S. has the only active production strategic bomber program, and the most capable bomber fleet. Russia, which inherited most of the ex-Soviet bomber force, has the only other strategic bomber force. It flies some Tupolev Tu-95s and Tu-160s, but these are not being upgraded. The replacement program, Sukhoi's T-60, is dormant.

The commercial jet transport market has returned to prosperity. Orders are up, airlines are making money, and only about 200 used planes are on the market, down from 1,000 a few years ago. Two questions remain: is this recovery sustainable, and does a rising tide lift all boats?

Few segments of the military aircraft market are growth areas today. Yet with shrinking force structures in the U.S., Europe and Russia, the need to rapidly transport available units remains as great as ever. European militaries, facing few threats in Europe, must look elsewhere for a raison d'etre. Where militaries are growing or maintaining their size (Asia), transports are obsolete and need replacing.