MRO的复苏之路 | MRO’s Likely Road To Recovery
航空售后领域的市场正在开始恢复，但恢复的方式和过程必定不会一帆风顺，肯定会包含一些令人痛心的波峰波谷。传统观点认为，由于亚太市场是首先受到疫情影响的市场，因此亚太地区市场将首先复苏；但目前的情况似乎并不明朗。
The aviation aftermarket is starting to rebound, but it will be anything but a smooth, steady climb upward. The uneven path is sure to include some jagged spikes that will hurt. While conventional wisdom predicted that the Asia-Pacific market would recover first because it was the first affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, now even that does not seem clear.
6月24日，广州飞机维修工程有限公司（GAMECO）耗资9000万美元的复合材料零件维修中心破土动工，新的维修中心计划于2022年开业，以帮助其进一步扩大本来就较为广泛的维修能力。相比之下，澳航（Qantas）第二天宣布将裁员20％，并且其大部分国际航班并不打算在2021年7月之前复飞。
On June 24, Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Co. (Gameco) broke ground on new $90 million component and composite repair centers that are planned to open in 2022 to help it further expand its already extensive capabilities. In contrast, the following day Qantas announced that it is cutting 20% of its workforce and does not plan to resume most international flying before July 2021.
显而易见的是，有几个重要时间节点将严重影响航空公司复苏的道路。9月将是一个重大的节点，届时许多航空公司将根据客户需求以及通过疫情援助法案的资助来调整其航班时刻表，而且此时带有裁员限制的CARES法案即将失效。航班的复苏还需要大量的商务乘客，他们将需要各自公司许可和增加飞行频率来恢复商务活动。鉴于目前各国对国际旅行的限制，目前尚不清楚何时国际航班量会显著增加。到2021年夏季，北半球的航班情况会是什么样子，航空公司所希望的假期旅行需求会激增吗？当然，最大的问题是有效的新冠病毒疫苗的普及时间，在疫苗普及后人们对飞行的信心将会恢复。
What is clear is that a few markers will heavily influence the path forward—a big one is coming in September, when many airlines will adjust their flight schedules based on customer demand and when payroll support funding provided through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which comes with restrictions on layoffs, is set to expire. The recovery also needs business travelers, who will require both corporate clearance and increased flight frequencies to resume road-warrior travel; when that will happen is unclear, given current restrictions on international travel. What will the travel season be like in the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2021, when airlines are hopeful that travel demand will surge for the vacation season? And of course, the big question mark is the timing of an effective novel corona-virus vaccine, which would restore confidence in travel.
好消息是，MRO市场似乎已经触底，已经有反弹的迹象，例如有些MRO供应商开始看到有些低成本组件的价格在上涨。VAS Aero Services公司首席执行官Tommy Hughes表示：“五月是我们所经历过的最艰难的月份之一，因为之前已经进行中的维修业务已经结束，但新的业务并没有出现。”但他也表示，到了5月底MRO业务开始回升，特别是在发动机维修方面。
The good news is that the industry appears to be at or near the bottom of the market, with aftermarket suppliers starting to see an uptick in lower cost components, for example. “May was one of the toughest months that we saw because repair activity that had already started was finishing, and there weren’t any new inductions involving engine or component repair,” says Tommy Hughes, CEO of VAS Aero Services. By the end of May, business was starting to pick up, “especially on the engine side,” he says.
但是，不能期望MRO行业整体的恢复会很快。香港飞机工程公司（HAECO）首席执行官Frank Walschot表示，MRO业务预计“将在未来两到三年间强劲恢复并全面复苏”。
However, do not expect overall MRO recovery to be rapid. Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Co. (HAECO) expects the MRO business to “come back strong and fully recover in the next two to three years,” says CEO Frank Walschot.
换句话说：做最坏的打算，但要抱最好的希望。
In other words: Plan for the worst, but hope for the best.
机队：我们路在何方 THE FLEET: WHERE WE ARE
由于乘客需求出现历史性的下降，为应对这个局面全球航空公司的机队此前都大量停飞；但目前他们正在稳步恢复航班时刻表，其中国内和短途航班的恢复速度更快。航空公司正在调整运营方式，以适应新的（更低的）需求预测。这些放低的预测加上一些财务困难的航空公司无法继续运营，这意味着数千架飞机很可能从此无法复飞，从而老飞机的退役计划加速了，最终导致机队年轻化。
Global passenger airlines grounded their fleets in response to a historic drop in demand but are steadily resuming flight schedules, with domestic and short-haul flights returning faster. Airlines are adjusting to projected new (and lower) demand forecasts. These, coupled with airlines in financial difficulty that may not resume operations, means thousands of aircraft most likely won’t return to service—with planned retirements of older aircraft accelerating, resulting in a younger fleet.
《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的“机队发现”（Fleet Discovery）数据显示，在5月28日-6月12日间有2085架飞机实现复飞状态，有656架飞机退出了储备状态，每周飞行1-2天。同时，在此期间有51架飞机退役， 444架飞机进入了库存状态。这表明航空公司正在进一步确定机队规模。截至6月12日，停飞的机队中有44％重新服役，其中绝大多数是窄体机。另外根据“机队发现”的数据，在停放的机队中有63％是租赁飞机。
Between May 28-June 12, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery data shows that 2,085 aircraft returned to in-service status and 656 moved out of semi-active parked reserve status, flying 1-2 days per week. Meanwhile, 51 aircraft were retired during this period and aircraft in storage climbed by 444, indicating that airlines are further defining their fleets. As of June 12, 44% of the fleet was in service, the vast majority of which are narrowbody aircraft. Of the parked fleet, 63% is leased, according to Fleet Discovery data.
目前客机的供过于求正在影响飞机的价值。Avitas公司高级副总裁Adam Pilarski表示，窄体机价格平均下降了10%~20%，宽体机下降了15%~30%，而根据飞机寿命、型号和发动机等变化因素，定价可能会有很大差异。但他也表示，货机的价格一直保持着稳定。
The oversupply of passenger aircraft is affecting values. On average, narrowbody prices have declined 10-20%, and widebodies have dropped 15-30%, says Adam Pilarski, senior vice president at Avitas, who emphasizes that there can be big differences depending on variables such as aircraft age, type and engines. Freighter aircraft prices have remained stable, he says.
新加坡的租赁商Dragon Aviation Capital公司飞机技术资产管理团队负责人Jefferson Ding表示，他听说飞机售后回租交易的价格比疫情前的价格低30%~40%，因为航空公司会尽力节省他们的现金。他说：“从长远来看，有些飞机的价值将比其他飞机更快地恢复到正常水平。例如空客A321因其适用于多种市场包括客改货等，其价值会恢复的较好。”
Jefferson Ding, team leader for aircraft technical asset management at lessor Dragon Aviation Capital in Singapore, says he has heard of sale-and-leaseback transactions at prices 30-40% lower than prepandemic rates, as airlines grabbed whatever cash they could. “In the longer term, different classes of assets will come back to normal levels faster than others,” he says. “For instance, the [Airbus] A321 will regain value and remain constant due to its suitability to a variety of markets, including the passenger-to-freighter market.”
MRO产业的恢复 MRO RECOVERY
MRO投资公司（MRO Holdings）首席执行官Greg Colgan说：“在过去，与发动机和零部件MRO相比，机身MRO通常不会经历低迷。但这次疫情的影响不同往。截至3月底，我们收到的在2020年底前的工作合同下降了近80%。”
“Typically, airframe MRO has been more insulated from the downturns we’ve seen in the past,” compared to engines and component MRO, “but of course we’re in new territory here,” says Greg Colgan, CEO of MRO Holdings. “We saw our 2020 contracted work drop by the end of March by almost 80% for the end of year” from its projections just a month before, he says.
MRO投资公司运营着Aeroman、Flightstar、TechOps MX和North State公司，他们表示“（MRO业务）已在第三季度有所恢复并稳定下来”，但由于客户在2021年夏季的日程安排中制定了不同的方案，因此需要经常与客户互动。Colgan表示“由于机身的MRO需要对六个月定检和十二个月定检的时间表进行仔细规划，而航空公司需要在2021年夏季之前准备好机队，因此这对2020年第三季度/第四季度的工作量可能会产生重大影响。”
MRO Holdings, which operates Aeroman, Flightstar,TechOps MX and North State, has “recovered and stabilized to some extent for the third quarter,” but it is interacting with customers frequently as they develop different scenarios for their summer 2021 schedules,” Colgan says. “Because airframe MRO requires careful planning with six- and 12-month schedules, it can have a big impact on third-quarter/fourth-quarter 2020 workloads for them to have fleets ready by summer 2021.”
约旦的MRO企业Joramco看到了市场对租赁结束检查和停机服务的强烈需求，其首席商务官Fraser Currie认为这种需求将再持续12个月，他表示“虽然并不会预计年交易量会发生重大变化，但我们确实看到合同付款发生了季节性变化。”这是因为许多航空公司扩展的MPD（维修计划文件）任务季节性有所变化，一些夏季工作被推迟到冬季，反之亦然。
Joramco, the Jordanian MRO, is seeing a strong demand for end-of-lease checks and parking service, which Chief Commercial Officer Fraser Currie thinks will last another 12 months. He does not “anticipate a significant change to annual volumes, but we do see a change in the seasonal profile of when checks come to us.” That’s because with many airlines “taking advantage of extended MPD (maintenance planning document) tasks there is a slight shift in the seasonality, with some summer work being pushed to winter and vice versa,” says Currie.
不断变化的维护任务会导致市场瓶颈吗？
Could the shifting maintenance tasks lead to a bottleneck?
MRO投资公司的Colgan说：“我目前的关注点是2021年的机身维修能力，因为航空公司现在推迟了飞机的维护，即使很多飞机预计会退役，但未来的机身维修量仍然可能会激增。维修量激增的规模显然取决于航线复苏的速度，但我们相信还会有另外的因素导致维修量激增。”
Colgan says: “My outlier concern right now is around airframe capacity in 2021 because airlines delaying maintenance now could create a surge later, even with the forecasted aircraft retirements. The size of the surge will clearly depend on the pace of recovery, but we believe there is some form of surge coming.”
并购：怎么了？MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS: WHAT'S UP?
在过去的五年中，MRO市场的特点是并购活动源源不断，这是因为金融界将MRO领域视为相对稳定的行业，能够产生丰厚的回报，因此一直对投资者保持吸引力。
Over the past five years, the commercial aftermarket has been characterized by a steady stream of M&A activity. Viewed by the financial world as a relatively stable industry able to generate strong returns, MRO providers have consistently remained attractive to investors.
融资的来源之一是私募股权公司，他们一直在MRO领域投入资金。在过去的18个月中，凯雷集团收购StandardAero、Greenbriar Equity集团收购STS Aviation，以及Ardian收购Revima等交易进一步凸显了MRO市场对私募股权的吸引力。
One of the sources of this financing has been private equity companies, which have consistently poured money into the MRO segment. In the past 18 months, deals such as the Carlyle Group acquiring StandardAero, Greenbriar Equity Group buying into STS Aviation and Ardian’s acquisition of Revima have further highlighted private equity’s affinity for the commercial aftermarket.
但是，鉴于疫情对金融市场的影响，当前任何交易都需要时间才能确定。
However, given the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets, any deals will take time to develop.
“在短期内，并购在很大程度上被搁置了……”Moelis＆Co董事总经理Azad Badakhsh说，“任何并购交易都需要双方才能达成，一个愿意买，一个愿意卖。如果您是目前状态下的售后市场业务的买主，那么投资团队很难提出一个基本案例以提交各自的董事会或投资委员会让他们批准交易。”
“In the near-term, M&A largely gets put on hold . . . any M&A deal takes two to tango, with a willing buyer and a willing seller,” says Azad Badakhsh, managing director of Moelis & Co. “If you’re a buyer in the current aftermarket business, it’s very hard for an investment team to come up with a base case to take to their respective board or investment committee."
由于航空公司机队的停飞以及对现金的敏感，航空公司将很多维护工作推迟了，这将给许多MRO供应商带来压力，这可能会迫使一些达成收购交易。Badakhsh说：“大多数公司非常不愿在当前的市场环境中出售产品，因为当前环境不太可能实现产品价值的最大化。但是他补充说，“会有一些缺乏资金的卖家并没有选择。”
Airline fleet groundings and deferral of maintenance work by cash-conscious carriers will put pressure on many MRO providers, which could force some deals. “Most companies are very loath to sell in the current market environment because it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to come close to maximizing value,” Badakhsh says, but he adds that “there are going to be some distressed sellers who won’t have a choice.”
随着飞机产能的降低，飞机OEM制造商也继续关注着售后市场，一些分析师认为，OEM制造商可能希望与MRO结成更多联盟。一些资金雄厚的独立投资者也倾向于通过买断和投资来增加MRO领域中的市场份额，而且有些人将当前的危机视为机遇。预计较小的独立企业和家族企业可能会被吞并。对于那些专注于传统飞机维修行业的人来说，最有可能的是他们将进入新一代飞机的维修市场。
With reduced production rates, airframe OEMs are expected to retain an aftermarket focus, and some analysts believe they may look to form more alliances with MROs. Well-backed independents have also been tipped to grow market share through buyouts and investments, and some are viewing the current crisis as an opportunity. It is expected that smaller independents and family businesses may be swallowed up. This is most likely for those focused on repairs for maintenance-intensive legacy aircraft types operating in what will become an even more new-generation-focused market.
尽管不确定性仍然存在，并且许多公司都在等待表明市场复苏的更好标志，但一些独立公司仍然看到了机会。Magnetic MRO的首席执行官Risto Maeots说，该公司将考虑可能的并购。他说：“我们必须首先摆脱这场危机，但我们也在寻找渡过危机之后保持增长的方式。”
Despite the uncertainties remaining, and many companies waiting for better indications of what a market recovery will look like, some independent companies still see an opportunity. RistoMaeots, CEO of Magnetic MRO, says the company would look at possible acquisitions. “We have to come out of this crisis first, but we are also looking at ways to keep growing afterward,” he says.
期待 LOOKING FORWARD
关于行业复苏步伐的看法虽然各不相同，但行业人士一致认为复苏将是一条漫长的道路，并在此过程中需要采取许多痛苦的手段。
Opinions on the recovery’s pace vary, with agreement that the path will be long, with many painful steps along the way.
Avitas高级副总裁Adam Pilarski预测，直到2023年底或2024年初，航空公司的客运量才能恢复到2019年的水平。虽然他认为2021年全球经济活动将回升，但他认为早在疫情报发之前经济预测就在衰退，因此当前的经济复苏与航空公司需求之间将有更深层次的脱节。如果发生这种情况，对新飞机的需求也会下降。
Adam Pilarski, senior vice president at Avitas, predicts that airline traffic will not return to 2019 levels until the end of 2023 or early 2024. He sees global economic activity picking up in 2021 but thinks there will be a deeper disconnect between economic recovery and airline traffic due a recession predicted before COVID-19 broke out. If that happens, demand for new aircraft will also drop.
其他行业分析师的预测也为2020年剩下的时间描绘了一片阴暗的前景。Teal Group的Richard Aboulafia预测，2020年飞机售后服务收入可能比去年下降75％，而咨询公司Alixpartners的预测是下降60％~65％。
Other industry analysts’ predictions also paint a gloomy picture for the rest of 2020. Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia has forecast that aircraft services revenue could be up to 75% lower in 2020 compared to last year, while consultancy Alixpartners, estimates a drop between 60-65% for this year.
在发动机领域，短期内MRO收入将大幅下降，例如咨询公司AeroDynamic Advisory预测发动机MRO需求将下降60％。
In the engine segment, the near term will see large revenue declines, with consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory predicting that engine MRO demand will fall 60%.
汉莎技术国际维护的高管Andreas Drosdowski指出，市场分析对于描绘未来前景非常重要，他认为生产线维护将是首先恢复的，他补充说：“我们看到更多的存储业务将产生更多的工作。”
While pointing to the importance of market analysis to paint a picture of the future, Andreas Drosdowski, head of maintenance Europe and CEO of Lufthansa Technik Maintenance International, believes line maintenance will be the first segment to pick up. “We see even more storage programs coming up which will generate work,” he adds.
总部位于澳大利亚的Heston MRO公司董事Jonas Butautis认为，在疫情流行之后，该公司可能会采取区域性的解决办法，尽管其中仍有以旅客旅行为中心的方法。“我们的客户群可能会更多地来自本地或本区域，我们仍将与该地区的商业航空公司合作。由于全球客运量仍然是货运量的30倍，因此货运航空的增长不会对MRO行业的趋势产生重大改变。”
Jonas Butautis, director of Australia-based Heston MRO, believes the company may adopt a more regional approach after COVID-19, albeit one still centered on passenger travel. “Our customer pool may change to a more local or regional one, but we will still work with commercial airlines in the region. There are still some 30 times more passenger than cargo aircraft globally, so this visual increase in importance of cargo aviation will not generate a major shift in MRO trends for the industry players.”
GE公司市场营销服务主管Keren Rambow很好地总结了市场：“复苏的需求水平将决定售后市场的供应水平。”
Keren Rambow, a GE Aviation marketing services executive, summarizes the market position well: “The recovery demand will dictate the levels of aftermarket supply.”
这条消息是Lindsay Bjerregaard, Lee Ann Shay和James Pozzi 在Inside MRO发表文章的摘要。 阅读全文，以了解疫性之后PMA零件、二手零件（USM）、发动机和先进技术的前景。
This is an abbreviated version of an article by Lindsay Bjerregaard, Lee Ann Shay and James Pozzi that appeared in Inside MRO. Read the full article for an outlook on parts manufacturer approval (PMA) parts, used serviceable material (USM), engines and technology advances post COVID-19.