航空周刊预测：2020-2029年全球F-16 机队的MRO需求 | Global F-16 MRO Demand 2020-2029

8月14日，美国国防部宣布中国台湾已经确定了66架F-16 Block 70战斗机的订单，之后，台湾将开设一个新的F-16战斗机的MRO中心。

Following the announcement on Aug. 14 that Taiwan’s order for 66 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 fighter had been finalized by the U.S. Department of Defense, a new maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) center is set to open in the country.

在2029年台湾的F-16机队将增加至204架，因此新的MRO中心目前是为了应对台湾F-16机队不断增长的情况而设计的，当然该中心也希望能吸引亚太地区其他F-16机队的维修业务。

While the new facility ostensibly is being established to conduct maintenance on the Republic of China Air Force’s growing fleet, which is now set to grow to 204 aircraft by 2029, it also is hoped the center will attract business from around the Asia-Pacific region.

目前，全球F-16机队中约有19％由印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦、新加坡、韩国、泰国和中国台湾的空军运营。但是根据《航空周刊网络》的预测，到2029年亚洲的F-16机队将有所增加，而欧洲和北美的F-16机队数量将有所下降：到2020年代末期，亚太地区的F-16将占当时在役机队的26％。

At present, around 19% of the global fleet are operated by the air forces of Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. However, with Aviation Week Network forecasting that Asia’s in-service fleet of F-16s will have increased by 2029, and with fleets in Europe and North America declining, the Asia-Pacific will be home to 26% of the active fleet by the end of the decade.

亚洲地区的F-16在未来十年中总的MRO需求预计将达到91亿美元，这为台湾新的F-16维修中心提供了潜在的市场。该MRO中心将与韩国航空工程和维修服务（KAEMS）中心竞争，KAEMS目前的业务之一就是为亚洲地区的F-16提供维修服务，以支持韩国和美国空军的战斗机。

In total these Asia-based F-16s are projected to generate $9.1 billion in MRO demand over the decade, providing a potentially lucrative market for the new Taiwan-based facility. It will compete with the Korea Aviation Engineering and Maintenance Service (KAEMS) center, which also provides F-16 MRO in the region supporting Korean and U.S. Air Force aircraft in the country.

即使F-16机队的规模从2020年的2792架飞机减少到2029年的2278架，在未来10年里全球F-16机队仍有望产生493亿美元的MRO需求。近年来，五角大楼与保加利亚、摩洛哥、斯洛伐克和中国台湾签订了为期10年的不确定交付时间/不确定数量的军售合同，总价值高达620亿美元，这些新飞机的交付有望在未来10年内出现。

Globally the F-16 fleet is expected to generate $49.3 billion in MRO demand over the next 10 years even as it shrinks from 2,792 aircraft in 2020 to 2,278 by 2029. However, with the F-16 program having secured additional sales to Bulgaria, Morocco, Slovakia, and Taiwan in recent years and the Pentagon placing a 10-year indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract for Foreign Military Sales valued at up to $62 billion, deliveries of new aircraft are anticipated throughout the next decade.