Boeing has modestly increased its commercial aircraft forecast for the next two decades but is anticipating slower growth of the global fleet compared to the rise in air traffic.
Released ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, the 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) forecasts a 3.2% increase in deliveries by 2043 to 43,975 new commercial aircraft. This will see the worldwide fleet increase from 26,750 aircraft in 2023 to 50,170 by 2043.
However, passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades, according to the CMO. This trend is driven by airlines increasing productivity through higher load factors and increased utilization of their fleet. South Asia passenger traffic will rise by 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends through the forecast period, Boeing believes.
“The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” Boeing SVP commercial sales and marketing Brad McMullen said.
Boeing has projected that Eurasia will lead all markets with the most aircraft deliveries over the next two decades, accounting for 22% of the total. This equates to 9,785 deliveries, of which 7,890 are expected to be narrowbodies. North America will account for about 20% of total deliveries, followed closely behind by China.
Boeing has also forecast that the single-aisle segment will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries. This marks a rise of 3% on last year’s forecast. The CMO found that airlines will need 8,065 widebodies over the next 20 years, up by 8.4% on 2023 expectations, and 1,005 freighters, up by 8.6%.
However, the regional jet market in the 70-90 seat sector will continue to shrink, the CMO expects. Boeing believes that 1,525 regional jets will be required over the next two decades, down by 15.7% on the previous forecast 12 months ago.
Other findings by Boeing forecasters suggest that the number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, even though nearly 20% of them are new. The outlook adds that the average global airline fare is about the same as it was 20 years ago, even as overall consumer prices doubled.
Boeing has also forecast that the commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel by 2043, driven by expansion in emerging markets, as well as training to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew.
The overall figures in Boeing’s CMO are similar to those expected by Airbus. The French manufacturer’s Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2024-43, released earlier this month, predicts a demand for more than 42,430 new aircraft deliveries over the next two decades. Of these 23,970 will be for growth and 18,460 will replace existing aircraft. The projected 2043 world fleet-in-service will be 48,230, compared with 24,240 beginning of 2024.
Airbus expects initial average passenger traffic growth rate of 8.4% CAGR until 2027 as it recovers growth lost during the pandemic. Average annual pax traffic growth will then be 3.6% per year from 2027 to 2043, the GMF forecasts.
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