THE BATTLE GROUND IN MEXICO
The most recent major carrier to go bankrupt is Mexicana and it has left a huge void in the Mexican aviation market. The Hub reported on their battle for survival earlier this year.Mexicana was the largest operator in Mexico and its collapse will see a battle for slots operated by the ex-oneworld operator. Low-cost carriers such as Volaris and VivaAerobus have not been slow to snap up some of the routes vacated, as well as regional operator Aeromar. However Mexico's downgrading to a category 2 status means that potential new routes into the dense Mexico-US market are not able to be served by Mexican carriers. 2011 will see if the new kids on the block will push for new US services, or the US carriers will be able to take advantage all new aircraft capacity between the two countries.
TAXATION
With the UK changing its current APD Tax to a per plane tax and Germany adding a German Departure tax, will these taxes stifle the recovery in air travel. The new coalition government in the UK has stated the changes from the existing ADP tax will reward more fuel efficient carriers that operate with higher load factors and will stop airlines operating half empty planes, whilst in Germany the new German Departure tax has not been well received by carriers, as the government seeks to gain one billion Euros per year. With both countries' economies undergoing challenges, the carriers will no doubt pass on extra tax and demand will be stifled. With the price of crude oil rising, carriers might find it difficult to sustain certain routes if passenger numbers begin to fall.
FURTHER ALLIANCES FOR 2011
2010 has been a year of airline consolidation and further strengthening of the airline groups. The battle for JAL with SkyTeam led by Delta attempting to lure JAL to switch alliance and give it a presence in one of the leading Asian economies which ultimately failed as JAL stayed loyal to its oneworld alliance. With BA and Iberia also announcing agreeing to merge, the oneworld alliance now has two major hubs in Europe in the shape of London Heathrow and Madrid Barajas. In the US, Star Alliance members Continental Airlines and United Airlines also agreed to merge. Both airlines are still operating a separate airlines however 2011 will see the airlines' begin to rationalise their networks and respective hubs. In Latin America, LAN and TAM will merge, a reaction possibly to the earlier merger of TACA and Avianca. No doubt this will lead to a battle for control of the new entity between Star Alliance and oneworld. In 2011, we would expect further consolidation and airline tie ups, following Air Berlin's move to oneworld and Thai International Airways and Tiger Airways forming of Thai Tiger recently.
MIDDLE EAST - CONTINUED GROWTH AS AN AVIATION HUB
The Farnborough Air Show saw Emirates make a huge order of 90 A380 superjumbo aircraft. The Hub evaluated this order earlier in the year and sees this as a bold move to increase its market share in the battle for global transit travel. With Etihad also employing a growth strategy at Abu Dhabi and Qatar Airways in Doha, 2011 will be interesting to see what strategies the major European players, Iberia and BA, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM employ.
NEW MARKETS FOR LOW-COST CARRIERS
It will be an interesting year for the LCC's in 2011, with low-cost markets becoming saturated and markets becoming difficult to stimulate. 2011 will potentially see further growth out of home markets in the low-cost sector, with low-cost operators expanding into new markets such as Israel, the Middle East and North African markers from Europe. The world's largest LCC, Southwest Airlines still looks to the near International markets of Canada and the Caribbean ,through codeshare agreements, as it prepares to take its first steps into the international market place. Meanwhile, competitors JetBlue and Spirit continue their forays into the Caribbean and Colombia respectively. Whilst in Asia, Spicejet and IndiGo are taking their first steps into the international sector and Singapore based Tiger Airways launching Thai Tiger in cooperation with Thai Airways International.
2011: YEAR OF THE DREAMLINER
After high profile delays, the B787 Dreamliner is scheduled to launch with maiden customer All Nippon Airways in March 2011. The Dreamliner will allow airlines to use 20% less fuel, with a seat capacity of 210-250 passengers. The Dreamliner will suit the needs the legacy carriers in thinner markets. LOT's recent announcement of new service from Warsaw to Hanoi would be a perfect market for the fuel efficient and lower capacity of the B787. It will also potentially bring a new dimension the low-cost long haul market. Can the low-cost market use the Dreamliner to serve thinner routes and gain a cost advantage.AirAsia X one of the few low-cost operators to successfully operate long haul with its Kuala Lumpur-London Stansted service which operates with a seat capacity of 278 seats on a daily basis. The Dreamliner's reduced capacity will improve the economics for long haul, low-cost.
CARGO MARKET
As reported in the Hub recently, the cargo market appears to be recovering according to official statistics. With businesses restocking and needing to shift inventory the demand for cargo is on the increase. With carriers such as Air France and JAL discontinuing their pure freighter operations, there will be significant expansion opportunities for pure freighter operators in 2011.
Related Content
