Ryanair has cut its passenger target by 2 million in the 2027 financial year and plans to reduce winter flying as higher unhedged fuel costs threaten the profitability of weaker seasonal routes.
The Irish ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) expects to carry 214 million passengers during the year ending March 2027, down from its previous forecast of 216 million. Traffic between November and March is expected to be “broadly flat year over year,” compared with the 2% second-half growth forecast provided in July.
“In light of high unhedged oil prices … it is sensible to strategically reduce the group’s exposure to unhedged jet fuel during the unprofitable winter schedule,” a statement from the ULCC said.
About 80% of Ryanair’s fiscal 2027 fuel requirements are hedged at approximately $67 per barrel, with jet fuel currently trading at about $140 per barrel. Subject to fares and passenger demand, the carrier expects the “one-off winter schedule cut” to reduce its winter losses by between €70 million ($81 million) and €100 million.
The airline said it remains on track to carry 145 million passengers during the summer 2026 season from April through October, an increase of more than 5% from 138 million a year earlier. However, second-quarter fares are trending modestly lower year over year.
Ryanair expects to remain profitable for the full fiscal year, although profit after tax is forecast to be below the record level achieved in fiscal 2026. The carrier said it remains too early to provide meaningful profit guidance.
In July, Ryanair reported a 34% drop in profit after tax for the first quarter of the 2027 financial year to €538 million, despite passenger traffic increasing 6% to 61.3 million. Average fares declined 6%, while operating costs rose 11% to €3.81 billion. Revenue increased 1% to €4.38 billion.
The airline’s current schedule filing has yet to reflect the scale of the newly announced reductions. OAG Schedules Analyser data shows Ryanair and Ryanair UK offering approximately 83.7 million scheduled seats during winter 2026-27, up 7.6% from 77.8 million during the previous winter season.
The filed schedule shows growth focused heavily on Italy, Poland, the UK and Albania. Departing capacity from Italy is up 15.9%, an increase of about 2.6 million seats, while Poland has risen 25.9% and the UK is up 8.2%. Albania capacity has more than doubled, led by Ryanair’s new Tirana International Airport base.
The largest reductions in the existing filing are in Belgium, where departing capacity is down 18.8%; Greece, down 40.1%; and the Netherlands, down 28%. Capacity from Austria is 7.1% lower.
Ryanair warned that European short-haul fares could “increase materially” if elevated oil prices persist into summer 2027, arguing that less-hedged competitors may be unable to maintain capacity or, in some cases, survive the winter.
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