What Will Happen In The Regional Jet Market?

Embraer E2 family aircraft concept
Although Embraer dominates the regional jet market, its E2 family has not been as successful in the market as expected.
Credit: Embraer

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What’s going to happen in the regional jet market? Will Embraer have a monopoly? Will airlines have to settle on older, inefficient aircraft?

Jens Flottau, Aviation Week’s executive editor for commercial aviation, responds: 

The regional segment as a whole, including regional jets, is probably the most fascinating segment in commercial aviation today. Not long ago, Embraer was competing with Bombardier and Mitsubishi. Then Bombardier sold the CRJ (Canadair Regional Jet) business to Mitsubishi and terminated production of new airliners (the C Series is now part of the Airbus portfolio and positioned above the regional space). Mitsubishi indefinitely shelved the SpaceJet because of huge development costs and uncertain market conditions. So yes, Brazil-based Embraer now has a monopoly in regional jets that could last for years.

But that position is not so great as it sounds. While the Embraer E2 is a very substantial step up from the E1, its market success has fallen short of expectations. Scope clauses remain in place in the U.S., and regional aircraft have not benefited as much as some had hoped from the wave of airline downsizing brought on by the COVID-19 travel slump.

Meanwhile, another monopoly is emerging in the turboprop segment, following the decision by de Havilland and parent Longview Aviation Capital to suspend production of the Dash 8-400. Although Longview has said it could restart the line in the future, that would require a substantial investment in setting up a new final assembly line in what is at best an uncertain market. Therefore, ATR is likely to remain the only Western producer of regional turboprops for the time being.

Some wild cards, however, could still change the dynamics within the regional aviation sector. Embraer is looking for partners to launch development of a new large turboprop that would compete with the ATR products and could capture part of the traditional regional jet market, assuming Embraer meets the goals it has set for efficiency and passenger comfort.

If Embraer does launch a new turboprop, ATR might be forced to react. Its owners, Airbus and Leonardo, have not been able to agree on the launch of a new turboprop, a development Leonardo would have liked to see happen years ago.

The advent of electric and hybrid-electric power for small aircraft up to 19 seats might also drive change in the regional market. Political pressure to improve environmental performance could result in electric-powered aircraft replacing some of today’s smaller turboprops.

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Jens Flottau

Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens leads Aviation Week’s global commercial coverage. He covers program updates and developments at Airbus, and as a frequent long-haul traveler, he often writes in-depth airline profiles worldwide.

Comments

1 Comment
Do you think that there is available an honest assessment of electric aircraft, its total "cradle-to-grave" balance of energy demand/waste and pollution needed to manufacture the aircraft propulsion hardware? The battery(ies), charger(s) and other paraphernalia use the electricity produced at an (almost certainly a fossil fuel burning) powerplant, conducted at long distances, transformed to lower voltage near the airfield, charge the battery, all of it at such and such (in)efficiency of the total energy transfer, making it visibly a totally political preference, lacking both economic and environmental sense.
Yet the possibility of an advanced internal combustion (turbine) engine, running at an optimal regime, turning a highly efficient generator, powering an again extremely efficient, possibly distributed propulsion electric motors, may finally make the grade for short to medium ranges.