Extensive survey results from across the advanced air mobility (AAM) industry reveal deep skepticism about the prospects for near-term passenger services and urban air mobility, offering a sobering view about the feasibility of planned service launches in 2024-25.
The study was commissioned by boutique consulting firm Orbit Management Services and included surveys of more than 150 executives and experts from across the AAM industry.
Among the most eye-popping findings: Less than one-third of respondents said they believe main regulatory frameworks for AAM will be rolled out by 2025 for the regions in which they operate.
That result is notable because Volocopter plans to launch commercial service in mid-2024 in Europe and Archer, and Joby Aviation are both targeting 2025 for their respective launches in the U.S. In China, meanwhile, EHang expects to type-certify its aircraft imminently and begin deliveries shortly afterward.
When broken down by specific application, views among industry experts are most pessimistic about the prospects for passenger services by 2025, while sentiment toward near-term cargo/logistics and enterprise applications (inspection, surveillance and mapping) is more optimistic.
For example, when rated on a scale of 1-5 from most-pessimistic to most-optimistic, the respondents reported an average score of 2.3 for passenger services, while logistics and enterprise received ratings of 3.6 and 3.7, respectively. This finding flies in the face of the heavy investor focus on passenger-carrying eVTOL air taxis to date.
Further ahead, however, the outlook for all of AAM, including passenger services, grows markedly more bullish. For example, by 2033, the view toward passenger operations rises to 3.5 out of 5, while logistics and enterprise applications receive ratings of 4.5 and 4.4, respectively.
In terms of technology challenges, respondents from across the industry ranked battery shortcomings as the top risk to near-term AAM services, followed by underdeveloped digital infrastructure and insufficient security and connectivity technologies. Looking out to 2033, digital infrastructure becomes the largest concern, followed by battery technology and physical infrastructure, including vertiports.
When asked to rank near-term economic risks, participants named unsustainable business models as the largest challenge for 2025, followed by limited capital investment and a shortage of skilled workers. By 2033, the top concern is expected fierce competition, with unsustainable business models and worker shortages ranked as the second- and third-largest risks, respectively.
On the regulatory side, stakeholders from all sectors agreed airspace integration will pose the greatest risk to near- and long-term implementation of AAM. Regulatory delays were identified as the second-largest near-term challenge, while certification and airworthiness standards were the second-largest long-term risks.
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