China May Have Operational ASAT Program, Reports Say

China appears to have developed at least one and perhaps three direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) programs, one of which appears to have been declared operational, according to a pair of reports issued March 30 on global space threats. 

“Chinese DA-ASAT capability against [low Earth orbit] targets is likely mature and may be operationally fielded on mobile launchers,” a report by the Secure World Foundation (SWF) says. “Chinese DA-ASAT capability against deep space targets (medium Earth orbit and geostationary orbit] is likely still in the experimental or development phase, and there is not sufficient evidence to conclude whether it will become an operational capability in the near future.”

The SC-19, also known as the DN-1, is the same kinetic missile that destroyed the Chinese FengYun 1C weather satellite in 2007. The weapon, which appears to be based on the DF-21 road mobile ballistic missile, appears to have been declared operational, according to the SWF report. It was written by Brian Weeden, director of program planning and Victoria Sampson, Washington office director. 

The report connects a few dots. In December 2018, the National Air and Space Intelligence Center reported, “China has military units that have begun training with anti-satellite missiles.” And in a statement to the U.S. Senate in January 2019, Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats said China “has an operational ground-based ASAT missile intended to target low Earth orbit satellites.”

Weeden and Sampson conclude that China has probably deployed those anti-satellite systems to at least some units and developed training for their use. But the SWF notes that it has not been confirmed by public reports.

And a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) adds that records show the Strategic Support Force, established in 2015 to bring outer space, electromagnetic space and cyberspace together under one entity, has begun training specialized units with direct-ascent ASAT weapons that can target satellites in low Earth orbit.

China is also developing other weapons—the DN-2 and DN-3—that could also be used for ASAT purposes or ballistic missile defense. China has not conducted tests that have resulted in debris. But according to the CSIS report, analysts believe that other kinetic physical tests have occurred since the one in 2007. “Missile tests are harder to judge because they could also function as a counterspace capability during times of conflict,” the CSIS report adds.