No fewer than 20 new business aircraft are under development by major manufacturers, almost all expected to enter service within the next five years.

Seven of the new jets are super large to ultra-long-range, seven are medium-size jets, and six are small aircraft, according to Chad Anderson, president of the Jetcraft international aircraft sales, marketing and ownership strategies consultancy.

He bases his intelligence on what the OEMs are canvassing in the marketplace, public (though sometimes obscure) announcements, and a guess or two. “Seventy-six percent of these are confirmed programs,” he says. “And the other 24%, I think, are pretty good estimates.”

It’s notable that developments are mostly in the larger end of the market, where the OEMs earn much more on each airplane sold, than at the lower, “consumer” end. That also reflects more customers expanding their global reach, he says.

Jetcraft anticipates the following new models (entry-into-service date is shown for each):

Bombardier: Learjet 70XR and 75XR (2021); Challenger 350XRS (2022); Challenger 750 (2023); Global 5500 and 6500 (2019); and the Global 7500XR (2021). The last could be a repositioning of the previously announced Global 8000.

Gulfstream: G400NG (2023); G600 (2019); and the G750 (2020).

Dassault: Falcon 6X (2021); and the Falcon 9X (2023).

Embraer: Phenom 100V+ (2023); Legacy 450E (2021); Legacy 500E (2022); and the Legacy 700 (2023). His anticipating the middle two Embraers was borne out by their being announced here at NBAA as the Praetor 500 and 600, respectively.

Cessna: Mustang 2+ (2025); CJ4/+ (2019); XLS++ (2019); Hemisphere (2023).

“The Legacy 700, Gulfstream 750 and Global 7500 XR are all guesses. They’re not yet on paper,” says Anderson. And he believes the Hemisphere could be canceled for legal reasons before being resurrected with different engines to replace the troubled Safran Silvercrests.

But Anderson is the first to say he is not infallible. In last year’s forecast he missed the Global 5500 and 6500, which had been a well-kept secret. “They were a pleasant surprise,” he says.