What Will The Next Decade Look Like For Regional Aircraft Retirements?

Africa

African airlines are expected to take a $6-13 billion revenue hit in 2020, while encumbered with heavy debts and high operating costs, triggering an appeal for $35 billion in financial support. This comes on top of the demand hit from the coronavirus pandemic, with IATA estimating that African airlines missed out on over $6 billion revenue in 2020. ICAO goes even further, putting this figure at $10-13 billion. AFRAA, which represents 47 African airlines, estimates the 2020 revenue loss at around $10.21 billion. 
Across the next 10 years, Africa airlines are estimated to retire more than 600 aircrafts, with the highest number of retirements taking place in the middle of the next decade. 

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Asia-Pacific (including India)

Within the Asia-Pacific region, the in-service fleet should be about 5,600 aircraft in 2021. In terms of retirements, we expect to see more than 1,000 retirements through 2030, with the largest number of retirements seen in the narrowbody Airbus A320 family.
 
Make sure to check out the forecast in MRO South East Asia for more updates on the Asia-Pacific and SEA predictions for the future.

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China

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is aiming for a total of 590 million airline passengers in 2021, 90% of the pre-COVID levels, but what might this mean for retirements in the region this year and the next decade? According to Aviation Weeks’ 2021 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast data, yearly retirements, given the younger age of the fleets here, will slowly increase across the decade with the greatest number seen in 2030 peaking at 75.  Only 430 aircraft are projected to retire over the decade.  The Airbus A319 will see the greatest number of retirements of all in-service aircrafts. 

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Europe

Like China, the A319 will be the most commonly retired aircraft across Europe until 2030 with nearly 400 of the aircraft being taken out of service by the end of the decade. Western Europe ranks second next to North America in sheer numbers of retirements.  Peaking in 2025, Western Europe’s fleet retirements are moderated by a mix of old and new aircraft in the second half of the decade, but potentially provides excellent surpluses of used serviceable material (USM) and green time engines as these aircraft are recycled.

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Latin America

According to Aviation Week Intelligence Network figures, revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) were 64% lower year on year at the end of January 2021 and 49% lower year to date.  Given the age of the underlying fleets, this precipitates an anticipated spike in retirements in 2023, with more than 90 retirements expected, before dropping down to around 60 per year through 2030.

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Middle East

Like every other regional market, the Middle East has seen passenger numbers plummet. With many local airlines heavily reliant on long-haul services, and the major Middle Eastern carriers of Etihad Airways, Emirates Airline and Qatar Airways depending on their global hubs, the road back is likely to be rocky because of the anticipated extended recovery of long-haul international service. In terms of retirements, about 30 aircrafts are predicted to retire in 2021, with this steadily increasing towards the end of the decade. There are also a number of passenger-to-freighter conversion candidates that are likely to become apparent by the end of the decade. 

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North America

Commercial retirements hit a peak in 2020 following a pandemic induced impact, nearing levels last seen in 2016 through airlines advancing on plans to shed themselves of assets that are uneconomical or no longer fit into long-term plans. Projections are for it to increase steadily again across the decade, before peaking in 2028. The Boeing 737-700 will see the greatest number of retirements, but like Europe, the massive numbers of popular types will provide opportunities for USM and green time engines to play a larger role in the aftermarket.

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According to Aviation Week Intelligence Network data, a surge of aircraft retirements took place in 2020 rivalling that seen in 2016. As the recovery’s pace and strength crystallize, airlines will make firm decisions about many aircraft currently in limbo. Airlines have made short term bets on their future fleets but have delayed long-term fleet-planning decisions until they see how their markets recover. Aviation Week Fleet Discovery flight tracking data shows there 29,951 aircraft were active in March 2020. At the end of February 2021, only 25,593 aircraft were active of which 16% were parked and nearly 10% were parked reserve meaning they were only flying once or twice per week. Take a look through our gallery of some regional forecasts for the next decade.

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