Aviation Week Forecast: Global F-16 MRO Demand 2020-2029

Following the announcement on Aug. 14 that Taiwan’s order for 66 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 fighter had been finalized by the U.S. Department of Defense, a new maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) center is set to open in the country.

While the new facility ostensibly is being established to conduct maintenance on the Republic of China Air Force’s growing fleet, which is now set to grow to 204 aircraft by 2029, it also is hoped the center will attract business from around the Asia-Pacific region.

At present, around 19% of the global fleet are operated by the air forces of Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. However, with Aviation Week Network forecasting that Asia’s in-service fleet of F-16s will have increased by 2029, and with fleets in Europe and North America declining, the Asia-Pacific will be home to 26% of the active fleet by the end of the decade.

In total these Asia-based F-16s are projected to generate $9.1 billion in MRO demand over the decade, providing a potentially lucrative market for the new Taiwan-based facility. It will compete with the Korea Aviation Engineering and Maintenance Service (KAEMS) center, which also provides F-16 MRO in the region supporting Korean and U.S. Air Force aircraft in the country.

Globally the F-16 fleet is expected to generate $49.3 billion in MRO demand over the next 10 years even as it shrinks from 2,792 aircraft in 2020 to 2,278 by 2029. However, with the F-16 program having secured additional sales to Bulgaria, Morocco, Slovakia, and Taiwan in recent years and the Pentagon placing a 10-year indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract for Foreign Military Sales valued at up to $62 billion, deliveries of new aircraft are anticipated throughout the next decade.

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) 2020 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast

For more information about the 2020 Forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: http://pages.aviationweek.com/Forecasts

Prepared by Craig Caffrey