Civil Aviation Programs To Watch

With the anticipated launch of the 737-10 at Le Bourget, the pace of Boeing’s reengined twinjet program continues to accelerate. Flight testing of the initial 737-8 was completed earlier this year and, despite a last-minute precautionary halt to all flying caused by checks to the aircraft’s CFM Leap 1B engines, the first aircraft entered service with Lion Air Group airline Malindo Air in May. Boeing is catching up quickly on flight tests and begins 737-8 deliveries to Norwegian Air in June, with Southwest Airlines following later this summer. Flight tests of the 737-9, which is making its international debut at Paris, began April 13.  Certification of -9 is targeted for early 2018. Meanwhile, Boeing expects to complete the wing-body join of the first 737-7 in December and firm configuration of the 737-10 around the same time.

After shelving development of the smallest A350 version, the A350-800, Airbus continues to study launch of a further stretch of the aircraft to complement the A350-900 baseline variant and the -1000, now in flight tests. The air show at Le Bourget could yield more clues about Airbus’s widebody plans.

Studies have been underway for some time, driven by a capacity gap between the -1000 and the Boeing 777-9X. The 777-9X offers about 30 more seats than the -1000 in standard configuration and reaches the 400-seat mark. Airbus executives are not convinced the market for large widebody twins justifies adding a version. Even if it has not, Airbus still may go for another stretch so as not to leave the segment to Boeing.

The so-called -2000 would be a relatively simple stretch of the -1000, trading range for capacity, executives indicate. But they first have to convince Airbus Commercial President Fabrice Bregier, who wants to limit development spending and has voiced concern about cannibalization effects of the smaller -1000. 

After a smooth development phase, the Airbus A330neo program has hit its first major snags ahead of flight testing, certification and deliveries. Two aircraft are parked in Toulouse awaiting their Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines. 

The delays already have caused major changes to the schedule: First flight, originally expected for the spring of 2017, is now not expected until at least late summer. And launch operator TAP Portugal is now scheduled to receive the first of its 14 aircraft on firm order in March 2018 or later—not before year-end 2017, as forecast when the aircraft was launched in 2014.

Airbus has 210 firm orders for the type, 204 for the larger A330-900 and six for the smaller -800. However, sales have been sluggish recently ahead of market introduction and also as a result of overall slow widebody orders. With the A330neo, Airbus is targeting shorter long-haul routes for which the A350 and Boeing 787 offer too much range. The manufacturer says the -900 will use 14% less fuel per seat than its predecessor, the A330-300.

Lockheed Martin has begun flight tests of its LM-100J commercial freighter version of the C-130J military airlifter. The 40,000-lb.-payload LM-100J is one of a growing number of commercial products from defense contractors, including the LMH-1 heavy-lift cargo hybrid airship and military Stalker XE-based LM-XE small long-endurance unmanned aircraft system.

A second LM-100J is in final assembly. First deliveries to the still-undisclosed launch customer are scheduled for 2018. The LM-100J is a version of the C-130J-30 and follow-on to the L-100 civil Hercules produced until the early 1990s. The main differences from the C-130J are the deletion of military-specific hardware and software and  lower windows below the windscreen. Internally, the LM-100J has a simpler gaseous-oxygen system rather than liquid oxygen. The Rolls-Royce AE2100-D3 engines, Dowty propellers and cargo-handling system are the same as on the C-130J. 

Four years after the 787-10 was launched at the 2013 Paris Air Show, the third member of Boeing’s 787 family is entering its third full month of flight testing and remains on track for first delivery to launch customer Singapore Airlines early in 2018. The first Boeing airliner to be assembled exclusively at the company’s North Charleston, South Carolina, facility, the 787-10 made its initial flight on March 31 and will appear at the show.

The first test aircraft, the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 TEN-powered ZC001, is engaged in envelope expansion work while the second aircraft, which joined the program in early May, is the first General Electric GEnx-1B powered 787-10. The third aircraft, ZC002, also is expected to join the program in June and will be configured with a passenger cabin interior. This aircraft will be used for testing the  uprated environmental control system as well as for measuring fuel-burn performance of the Trent 1000 TEN. 

Combining Advance3 core technology and features from the Airbus A350’s Trent XWB program, the hybrid engine will become the standard Rolls 787 powerplant beginning this year.

The Dassault Falcon 8X entered service late last year; the first Falcon 5X delivery is planned for 2020, and the company is already working on its next business jet.

“We want to be in a position to launch a new Falcon business jet at the end of 2017,” Dassault Aviation Chairman and CEO Eric Trappier said in the company’s 2016 annual report. “Preliminary studies are focusing on enhanced comfort and a reduced environmental footprint, mainly by reducing fuel consumption and noise.”

It is likely the future Falcon will use the Falcon 5X as a new platform. The airframer is gathering additional “technology bricks,” the list of which is being determined this year. A market study is taking place in parallel.

One of the bricks may be an extension of the airflow’s laminar portion on the wing’s chord. Dassault is participating in a European research program, called the Breakthrough laminar aircraft, that should culminate in flight tests this summer. The expected benefit is lower fuel burn. Another major aerodynamic change may be adopted to cut the noise footprint. Dassault has conducted wind-tunnel tests of a U-shaped empennage to “mask” the engine’s noise on the ground.

In materials, Dassault is looking at a new generation of composites to help reduce maintenance needs and improve recycling qualities. A machine tool that will be used in the development process is to be delivered to one of the company’s factories late this year.

As for on-board power, work on the Hycarus research project may advance the long-discussed idea of having a fuel cell replace the auxiliary power unit or, at least, curb the use of power from the engines for nonessential equipment. A flight test with the fuel cell is planned by year-end.

The Comac C919 program has a first delivery date of 2020 (the first flight was on May 5). But this is not definitive; the manufacturer is striving for the target, says a senior program source, implying it may be missed.

Early on, Comac declared a target for direct operating costs 10% lower than then-current aircraft in the same class—the Boeing 737 NG and the first series of Airbus A320s. These competitors have now been updated with new engines, however. Indeed, the A320’s CFM Leap-1A is almost the same as the C919’s Leap-1C. 

The C919 is designed for 158 passengers in a two-seat configuration and to fly 4,075 km (2,532 mi.) in its standard version and 5,555 km in its extended-range version. 

The European Aviation Safety Agency has begun work on validating the Chinese type certificate.

 While the A320neo has been in airline operations for 18 months now, Airbus is continuing introduction and testing of the two other variants. The first—an A321neo powered by CFM International LEAP-1A engines—was delivered to Virgin America in April, but delivery of the first Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-equipped aircraft was still pending in mid-May after some serious delays. The first A319neo, powered by CFM engines made its first flight in April.

Upgrade work to address the long cooling time required during engine startup—along with in-service reliability issues—continues to hamper operations at some PW1100G airline customers. Pratt & Whitney identified fixes that have been certified, but the changed hardware and software need to be retrofitted to the in-service fleet. The work has also slowed down deliveries of engines for new aircraft, including A320neos and A321neos. Pratt has indicated that it will take through the end of the year to resolve all the issues. But on the other hand, airlines confirm that both the Pratt and CFM versions of the aircraft meet, and often exceed, the promised 15% fuel burn reduction per seat.

Airbus has 3,616 firm orders for the A320neo, 1,736 for the A321neo and 55 for the A319neo. The first 94 A320neos were delivered at the end of March.

The A380 remains the most worrying item in the Airbus portfolio. The manufacturer has orders for 317 aircraft, 210 of which have already been delivered. The backlog of 107 aircraft is in theory enough to sustain production at current rates for nine years. But the reality is more complicated. Airbus urgently needs more orders for its largest commercial aircraft.

The OEM set 2017-18 production at a much reduced rate of 12 aircraft per year after Emirates deferred 12 deliveries by one year. However, there are still open production slots to be filled in 2019. With the long lead times for parts sourced in the supply chain, Airbus needs clarity about 2019 production by year-end.

While Emirates has delivery of 48 more A380s outstanding, it does not plan to take any in 2019-20 due to lack of space at its Dubai hub. It will start replacing its earliest A380s with new aircraft in 2021.

The real backlog is likely much smaller than the official figure, which includes 47 aircraft that look uncertain. Among them are six for Virgin Atlantic, which has made clear it does not want them anymore, eight for Qantas, which wants to keep its A380 fleet at 12, and three for Air Accord, a finance vehicle that assumed orders of the now defunct Transaero. Also listed is Amedeo, the A380-specialized lessor with commitments for 20 aircraft. Amedeo commits to production slots only once aircraft are placed with customers.

Behind closed doors Boeing continues to refine plans for the launch of a New Midsize Airplane (NMA), already unofficially dubbed the 797, to fill the capacity gap between the 737 MAX and 787 in the mid-2020s. While exact details remain scarce, the work seems to have narrowed down to focus on a twin-aisle family concept with two main variants seating 220-270 passengers and offering a 4,800-5,000-nm range capability.  

The viability of the NMA hinges on merging twin-aisle capacity with single-aisle operating costs. To achieve this ambitious goal, Boeing is evaluating unconventional cross-sections, advanced structures and aerodynamics, and a raft of advanced production processes to cut manufacturing costs. Above all, Boeing is also asking the engine-makers for proposals on a new generation of fuel-efficient engines in the 40,000-45,000-lb.-thrust range. As engine development is one of the long poles in the NMA tent, the focus at this year’s Paris Air Show will be on first signs of what those engines might look like and, just as important, when these proposals could be ready for prime time.

Embraer’s 195-E2 prototype will make its international debut at the Paris Air Show, marking the second year in a row that the Brazilian manufacturer has demonstrated sufficient confidence so early in a flight-test campaign to bring a new model to a major overseas trade event. 

Embraer, which took the E190-E2 to last year’s Farnborough Airshow as part of a European sales tour, made the first flight of the stretched E195-E2 at the end of March, three months ahead of schedule, and is now into the busiest phase of its $1.75 billion, multiyear next-generation E2 development effort. 

Based on Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G geared turbofan family, the reengined and rewinged E190-E2 is on schedule for first delivery in 2018, while the longer-fuselage E195-E2 is on track for entry into service in 2019. The company announced in late 2016 that the debut of the third member of the E2 family, the smaller E175-E2, has been pushed back a year to 2021 pending the resolution of airline pilot contract scope clause agreements in the U.S., which is considered the primary market for the model. 

Embraer has five aircraft in the flight-test campaign, four E190-E2s and the single E195-E2. Total flight-test hours now exceed 900, most operated by the E190-E2s. The company, which expects to deliver up to 102 commercial airliners in 2017, has a firm backlog of almost 300 E2s.

Bombardier transformed its C Series orderbook in 2016 with landmark sales to two marquee customers: Air Canada for 45 firm orders and 45 options for CS300s, and Delta Air Lines for 75 firm orders and 50 options for CS100s. The company also began deliveries of CS100s to C Series launch customer Swiss International Air Lines and CS300s to AirBaltic. The production ramp-up  has been slowed by delivery delays of Pratt & Whitney PW1500G geared turbofans, but Bombardier expects to deliver 30-35 aircraft this year as planned. Quebec’s $1 billion investment in the C Series program and pricing of the Delta order have resulted in Bombardier facing a subsidies challenge raised by Embraer at the World Trade Organization and an anti-dumping investigation instigated by Boeing in the U.S.

Bombardier has flown three of four Global 7000 test aircraft, keeping the ultra-long-range, ultra-large-cabin business jet on track for delivery in the second half of 2018. Test highlights include reaching a speed of Mach 0.995. Designed to fly 7,400 nm at Mach 0.85, the 7000 is an all-new aircraft with General Electric Passport 20 engines and fly-by-wire digital flight controls. In 2015, Bombardier extended the program by two years, in part for a wing redesign intended to improve the high-lift system. Wing supplier Triumph Group had sued Bombardier to recover additional costs for the redesign, raising concerns of a program impact, but  said May 24 it had reached a “comprehensive settlement” with the airframer.

Russia’s new MC-21 airliner, the first Russian-made narrowbody commercial passenger transport designed in the post-Soviet era, is progressing toward first deliveries to Russia’s largest carrier, Aeroflot, in 2019. The aircraft manufactured by Irkut Corp., a subsidiary of Russia’s government-owned aircraft holding company, United Aircraft Corp., made its first flight in May, slightly less than a year after the prototype was rolled out. 

The MC-21 that flew last month was powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1400G-JM engines. An alternative Russian powerplant—the Aviadvigatel PD-14—just completed initial trials on the Ilyushin Il-76LL flying lab, which has enabled engine certification tests to start. Russian engine certification is expected in 2018. The MC-21 backlog stands at 175 firm orders, mostly from government-owned Russian leasing companies, and more than 100 commitments. The question now: Will it sell?

Boeing passed through the 70% detailed design mark for its 777X flagship on the eve of the Paris Air Show, and tests of a wide-ranging series of avionics, power and other integrated systems are ongoing at the company’s ground laboratories close to Boeing Field in Seattle. The test plan this year is expected to culminate with integration of all the evaluated systems into a representative aircraft dubbed “Airplane Zero.” Assembly of the first parts for the initial 777-9, a static test airframe, meanwhile is underway in the purpose-built 777X composite wing center at nearby Everett, Washington, where the initial one-piece wing spar is about to enter lay-up. The initial wing spar was loaded onto the assembly jig in April. Boeing also plans to build a fatigue-test airframe in addition to four 777-9s for the flight-test program. The first 777-9 is due to roll out in late 2018. Two aircraft will be built for the 777-8X test program. Certification-testing of the aircraft’s General Electric GE9X engines also is underway following the firing up of the first full certification-standard engine, No. 002, at GE’s Peebles, Ohio, facility on May 16.