With China’s domestic air passenger traffic surpassing 2019 levels in 2023, the recovery of international service is what will determine whether China’s airline market fully recovers—in terms of traffic—this year, according to Fitch Ratings.

In a new report assessing the Chinese commercial aviation market’s fourth-quarter and full-year traffic numbers, Fitch notes domestic passengers in 2023 more than doubled from 2022, reaching 590 million. 

Although international passengers jumped from 1.9 million in 2022 to 29 million in 2023, that is still less than 40% of 2019 levels, according to Fitch.

Flights between China and the U.S. were 70X-weekly in the 2023 fourth quarter, “although the frequency is still falling short of its pre-pandemic level of 300 per week,” Fitch notes.

“Other international routes have broadly been rising throughout the year," Fitch says. "Policy support was stepped up to foster cross-border travel, such as visa-free trials and optimization of customs policies.”

Fitch says capital investment in airports “continued in [the 2023 fourth quarter] and the elevated [capital expenditure] may add pressure to the leverage metrics of airport operators.” Fitch adds that "most Chinese airports’ access to government support can partially mitigate these risks.”