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Routes World 2024 took place in Bahrain, where leaders from several Gulf region airlines addressed future planning and ongoing supply chain challenges.
The Middle East has seen solid growth in passenger numbers since the pandemic, and this trend is expected to continue, despite the geopolitical tensions impacting the region.
According to estimates from ACI World, passenger traffic is projected to reach 449 million in 2024, representing 110% of its pre-crisis level in 2019. This makes the Middle East one of the fastest-recovering aviation markets globally, second only to Latin America in percentage rise.
While the ongoing conflict in parts of the region has reduced connectivity from Israel and Lebanon in particular, as well as affecting airspace, a more pressing challenge facing several Middle Eastern airlines is the availability of aircraft. Like many carriers around the world, Gulf airlines are grappling with delayed deliveries, grounded jets, and operational limitations.
This was a key message that emerged from the Routes World 2024 conference, which took place in Bahrain in October and included on-stage interviews with executives from Air Arabia, Etihad, flyadeal, Gulf Air and Riyadh Air.
Gulf Air, for example, operates a fleet of 10 Boeing 787-9s, but engine shortages mean only eight are in service. CEO Jeffrey Goh described the global aircraft supply chain as being in a “chronic” state of disruption that is affecting the Bahraini carrier’s ability to expand its international network.
“There are currently around 700 aircraft, narrowbodies and widebodies, grounded globally due to engine issues,” Goh said. “There are various reasons for this—including the supply of raw materials, manpower, and business modelling—but it means that many carriers like Gulf Air have aircraft on the ground.
“Unless we stabilize these factors, there will be restrictions and constraints on how determined an airline’s growth ambitions can be globally. I don’t foresee this situation improving in the next two to three years.”
Riyadh Air, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious new national carrier, plans to launch commercial operations in 2025 but is already experiencing delivery delays. CEO Tony Douglas explained that the airline intends to connect Riyadh to more than 100 international cities within its first five years, but its strategy relies on timely deliveries of new aircraft.
“I recently became a grandfather for the first time, and I see some parallels here,” he said. “My daughter repeatedly promised that the delivery would occur, and it did, but it was a forecast that kept getting revised. That seems apt for describing the situation with both Boeing and Airbus at the moment.”
Riyadh Air ordered its first batch of 39 787-9s in 2023 and has options for a further 33. A narrowbody order for 60 Airbus A321neo-family aircraft was placed in late October, while an order for larger widebody aircraft will be placed at a later date. However, Douglas revealed that the airline has already been forced to alter its launch plans because the delivery timeline keeps slipping.
“We’ve revised our plan on three occasions, but we’ve made it clear from the start that we are genuinely different,” he said. “Unlike a conventional airline that can adjust its network to accommodate delivery delays or extend leases, we don’t have a plan B. We don’t have any leases, and until we receive our first deliveries, we don’t have a network either.”
Flyadeal, Saudi Arabia’s fast-growing LCC, has been aggressively expanding its domestic network and is set to embark on a period of international growth as its fleet expands. However, like its counterparts, plans are being slowed because of supply chain bottlenecks.
The airline, a subsidiary of Saudia, has a fleet of 35 Airbus A320-family aircraft plus a wet-leased Airbus A330, which it uses for religious charter operations. Another 58 narrowbodies are on order from Airbus and the carrier expects to place a widebody order before the end of 2024, with the A330 and 787 under evaluation.
Flyadeal CEO Steven Greenway said that although aircraft are generally arriving on time from Airbus—largely because of flyadeal’s standardized, off-the-shelf onboard products—engine reliability is a major concern.
“The engines are not staying on the wing as long as the previous generation,” he said. “This is a problem because we need to keep spare engines on hand, as the ones we have often disappear into the shops for an extraordinarily long time. We have to take aircraft offline to swap out engines, and I have a dedicated crew in Riyadh that handles nothing but engine changes.”
Greenway added that there have been more than 30 engine changes on a fleet of around 30 to 35 aircraft during 2024. “This situation is not uncommon, but it’s made worse by the harsh operating environment in Saudi Arabia, with the sand, heat, and other environmental factors,” he said.
Air Arabia CEO Adel Abdullah Ali said the group has been leasing additional capacity while waiting for the 120 A320 family aircraft that it has on order, with initial neo deliveries now anticipated in the second half of 2025, followed by A321XLRs from 2027. “We have grown to about 85 aircraft and have been leasing planes in the meantime because deliveries from the OEMs have been slower,” he said.
However, Ali admitted that the delays are not all down to Airbus. “We decided to delay [the neo deliveries] until late 2024,” he said. “The reason for that is we’re waiting for the next generation of the [CFM LEAP] engines that will probably kick-off this year, or early next year. There has been some delay, which will probably mean our first delivery will be in the second half of 2025.”
Etihad’s chief revenue and commercial officer Arik De emphasized the importance of flexibility for airlines in managing delivery delays and supply chain issues. The Abu Dhabi-based airline reintroduced A380 flights in 2023, two years after grounding its fleet of 10 and initially stating they were unlikely to return to service. Five are now back in operation.
De said that two more A380s would return in 2025 to help ease capacity constraints. Additionally, he pointed to the airline’s decision to take six leased A321neos earlier this year, which had been parked by Vietnamese carrier Bamboo Airways. The airline had not previously operated the aircraft type.
“Our fleet team concluded the negotiation in three and a half days, and we took delivery within five months,” he explained. “The backlog from Airbus and Boeing is massive—and it’s not going anywhere. The key is to be flexible and recognize that there will be hiccups.”
De said that Etihad’s plan anticipated a six-month delay for each new aircraft. “However, if it’s seven or eight months then we adjust accordingly,” he added. “Airlines spend a lot of time focusing on things they can’t control—we don’t.
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