More Money, More Problems For Emerging UK RAM/UAM Sector

LONDON–The UK’s potential market for urban air mobility (UAM) and regional air mobility (RAM) is huge, according to a new analysis published by a specialist consultancy. But so too are the requirements for both pilots and electricity.

EA Maven has analyzed information including anonymized cellphone data to map routes that people currently travel between UK towns, cities and airports. The data enables firm conclusions to be reached about the transportation mode used to take those journeys, and, based on journey timing, permits business journeys to be differentiated from leisure journeys with a reasonable degree of certainty.

The firm has previously published analysis of what appear to be the most viable potential routes for UAM and RAM services. It also predicted the value to the UK economy of the time savings that could be obtained if travelers switched to the faster mode. It has also put large numbers on the sectors’ potential income available to aircraft and air/vertiport operators—some £2.46 billion ($3.12 billion) for RAM and £2.87 billion for UAM.

The new report also adds projections for energy requirements, which company co-founder Jarek Zych describes as “really staggering. For UAM, annually on an accumulated basis, it would be 850 GWh [gigawatt hours],” he told the Revolution.aero conference here.

For RAM, those figures are higher. EA Maven’s projections are based on the most optimistic assumptions in terms of decarbonization—that RAM flights will be fueled by hydrogen. But producing hydrogen requires vast amounts of electricity. The firm projects a requirement of 33 million kg of hydrogen annually to fuel 987 18-seat aircraft. This will require some 2.1 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity every year to produce.

A medium-term, growing-market forecast contains some less daunting numbers. In this scenario, which EA Maven has projected for 2035, some 10% of the total number of notionally viable routes are in operation, with 117 RAM aircraft being operated by seven operators on 70 routes from 15 hubs. For UAM, the corresponding numbers are 356 electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles flown by seven operators serving 105 routes from 15 hubs. Across the two types of new flight operations, a total of 455.6 GWh would be required annually.

In theory, the UK should be able to generate and distribute sufficient electricity to meet these requirements. Electricity demand in Britain has dropped significantly since 2005, when total demand exceeded 406 TWh. In 2023, total demand was just less than 310 TWh. But even if it can be supplied, the electricity will still have to be paid for. Although UK energy costs have dropped since the highs seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prices are expected to remain above historic averages for the foreseeable future.

EA Maven is also forecasting a high requirement for pilots. Under the same 2035/10% scenario, there would be a need for 704 RAM pilots and 1,425 UAM pilots. According to an estimate published in 2023 by L3 Harris Airline Academy, this would be around 40% more pilots than graduate from all of the UK’s Airline Training Organizations in a year. These forecasts arrive at a time when the smaller regional airports in the UK—where flight training is carried out—are under increasing pressure.

“We are starting to have conversations with airports and have even been engaged by one to help them secure funding, as they are well-placed to secure RAM and UAM traffic,” EA Maven co-founder Darrell Swanson tells AAM Report via email. “We strongly advocate for the protection of smaller airfields where flight training takes place, but this should also be supported by government through legislation to prevent brownfield rules being used to turn them into housing developments.”

There may be an opportunity for regional airports that goes beyond the significant increase in traffic that will come if RAM aircraft are deployed in the quantities that EA Maven’s analysis predicts. The solution to the energy problem could lie in turning parts of the airfield estate into solar power farms. This would ensure energy self-sufficiency and potentially earn extra income by selling surplus electricity to the National Grid. Using the land in this way should also help preserve flight schools and other airfield activities by rendering it unsuitable for non-aviation redevelopment.

Swanson points out that some airports have included solar photovoltaic installations and energy infrastructure upgrades in their master planning process. The firm is working with the Regional and Business Airports Group (RABA) to raise awareness of the opportunities and associated challenges. Infrastructure lead times and costs can be considerable, but there are emerging workarounds.

“The good news is that we are seeing some companies looking to develop Energy as a Service [EaaS], where they provide the infrastructure for AAM [advanced air mobility] aircraft,” Swanson says. “They look at the demand and the existing infrastructure and develop a system to serve the airport, but also the grid. There is no cost to the airport in terms of capital, as the EaaS company gets the revenue from selling electrons or hydrogen to the operators and/or electrons back to the grid.”