Key Points To Keep An Eye On In 2015

The unrelated but back-to-back failures of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo and Orbital Sciences’ Antares in October caused confidence in the commercial space industry to plummet. Regaining momentum will be critical in 2015. Virgin hopes to resume testing mid-year with a second vehicle. Orbital plans to deliver cargo to the International Space Station using another launch provider until a redesigned Antares—reengined with a Russian RD-180 or RD-193—is ready at the end of 2016.
Credit: Chris Simundson/AW&ST

Even if the CSeries narrowbody airliner enters service on target in the second half of 2015—which is still in doubt—Bombardier will have lost any lead it had over its rivals. Airbus’s re-engined A320neo is expected to enter service in October 2015, ahead of Boeing’s 737 MAX in 2017, and deliveries will quickly eclipse the slow production ramp-up planned against the CSeries’ modest order book.
Credit: Airbus

As a threat to Airbus and Boeing, China’s commercial aircraft industry looks like a paper tiger—this time around. Comac’s ARJ21 regional jet is set to enter service in 2015, eight years late, but will immediately be upgraded to reduce weight and update avionics. The C919 narrowbody is planned to fly late in 2015, but if service entry is achieved in 2018, as is now predicted, its development will have taken a decade.
Credit: Comac

After 14 years of development, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is expected to become operational with the U.S. Marine Corps in 2015—but aircraft modifications and software testing could push it closer to December rather than the desired July date. Initial operational capability with the U.S. Air Force in August 2016 also is threatened by software development and maintenance training.
Credit: U.S. Navy

India’s new prime minister wants its domestic industry to meet half the country’s defense equipment needs, worth $250 billion over the next decade. But can industry deliver? The indigenously developed Hindustan Aeronautics Tejas Mk.1 Light Combat Aircraft, set to achieve final operational clearance in 2015, has taken 20 years to develop, but at a cost of only $1.2 billion to date, the government says.
Credit: Aeronautical Development Agency

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine seems set to kick-start U.S. development of a new rocket engine in 2015, after decades of procrastination and reliance on the Russian RD-180 motor to launch its national security satellites. But the U.S. Air Force wants to avoid a major government-funded program and instead put money into public-private partnerships with SpaceX and United Launch Alliance, which is working with engine developer Blue Origin.
Credit: United Launch Alliance

Business aviation may be beginning a slow recovery from the financial crisis and market collapse of 2008, but it will be weighted heavily toward larger aircraft. Manufacturers are responding accordingly, and 2015 will see first flights of the ultra-long-range Bombardier Global 7000, Dassault’s super-mid-sized Falcon 5X and long-range Falcon 8X, and Gulfstream’s large-cabin G500.
Credit: Bombardier

Belatedly, the FAA is making progress approving limited operations by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in civil airspace. But it will be touch-and-go whether the agency achieves even its narrow interpretation of the congressional mandate to enable safe integration of UAS into national airspace by September 2015. The long-awaited draft small UAS rule was due out at the end of 2014, but is expected to draw unprecedented public comment, likely delaying the final rule.
Credit: Aerial-MOB

The Pentagon’s next round of major aircraft procurements are planned to get under way in 2015, but this is questionable if budget sequestration continues. Award of contracts to develop the U.S. Air Force’s Long-Range Strike Bomber and the Navy’s Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike system, as well as programs to replace the Air Force’s T-38C advanced trainer and E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System fleets are at stake.
Credit: Boeing

The one-year anniversaries of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March and the shootdown of its Flight 17 in July 2014 should see progress in identifying and fielding near-term options to improve global aircraft tracking and the sharing of critical conflict-zone risk information. International Air Transport Association tracking and International Civil Aviation Organization conflict-zone task forces were due to make recommendations by the end of 2014.
Credit: Aireon

The Pentagon’s new “Third Offset” strategy to focus research and development in areas that could restore the U.S.’s eroding technological lead over potential adversaries will take shape during 2015. Details are still sparse, but outgoing Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has listed advanced manufacturing, autonomous systems, big data, miniaturization and robotics. Other areas such as cyberwarfare and hypersonics are already receiving attention.
Credit: Lockheed Martin

Toward the end of 2014, major aircraft and engine manufacturers began stockpiling titanium against the possibility that sanctions against Moscow for its intervention in Ukraine could restrict supply and drive up prices. The threat has yet to materialize, but looms over 2015. Russia’s VSMPO-Avisma supplies 60% of Airbus’s titanium and 35-40% of Boeing’s and their latest A350 and 787 models, respectively, are “titanium-hungry” because of the metal’s critical role in composite airframes.
Credit: MAKINO

The unrelated but back-to-back failures of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo and Orbital Sciences’ Antares in October caused confidence in the commercial space industry to plummet. Regaining momentum will be critical in 2015. Virgin hopes to resume testing mid-year with a second vehicle. Orbital plans to deliver cargo to the International Space Station using another launch provider until a redesigned Antares—reengined with a Russian RD-180 or RD-193—is ready at the end of 2016.
Credit: Chris Simundson/AW&ST