For the last decade, analysts have predicted growth in Europe’s business aviation market. And every year their forecasts have proven over-optimistic as the giant stirs but never really wakes up.

New deliveries to the world’s second largest market after North America have remained stubbornly flat. “Recently though, there have been fresh dynamics quietly developing that could help stimulate this sleepy market,” says aviation analyst Brian Foley, who adds that he had almost given up commenting on business jet sales to the region due to its resistance to growth.

His newfound but guarded optimism is echoed by Brandon Mitchener, the new CEO of the European Business Aviation Association. In his new role, coming from outside the industry and being an American to boot, Mitchener could be expected to exude enthusiasm for his new bailiwick. But his arguments for optimism support Foley’s change of heart. Could they both be right?

“A trio of recent factors in Europe could help to goose-up the private aviation industry there,” Foley says. “First, some political uncertainty has been removed with election results in France suggesting a little more stability in the European Union. Next, the euro has strengthened against a weakening dollar, which makes new aircraft pricing a little more palatable in local currency.

“Finally, rising stock markets in the region provide the balance sheets and personal financial portfolios needed to fund a discretionary spend in private aviation.

“From these observations,” he says, I’m convinced that Western Europe will be the next region to recover, just as the revived U.S. market begins to taper following several years of recovery. This is important since Europe ranks as the second largest market after the U.S.”

According to Mitchener, “We’ve now had six months of steady growth in traffic numbers and they’re the best since 2011. This is an exciting time for business aviation, with innovative new aircraft, technologies and business models coming to the fore. The industry is looking dynamic as it expands its offerings for new and existing customers and aircraft owners.”

He points out business aviation’s unmatched value proposition: meeting needs that no other transport option can satisfy, and helping users achieve huge time savings, flexibility and full control over their schedules. But this has been true for the last decade; why should it stimulate new sales now?

“It’s a vibrant, evolving industry and many players are developing new ways of working that further expand customers’ freedom of choice,” Mitchener says. “This includes online booking platforms with faster response times, more transparency, and better pricing.”

Whether Europe, home to the phenomena of the online charter broker industry, succeeds in bringing enough new customers to the market to warrant expanding the charter fleets of business jets remains to be seen. Embraer’s past president of Executive Jets, Marco Tulio Pellegrini, believes the industry must carry another million passengers every year to break out of the “new normal” of an annual 650 to 750 business jet deliveries worldwide, down sharply from the unsustainable peak of 1,136 deliveries in 2008 before the global financial crisis wrecked everyone’s production plans.

Charter brokers and operators such as VistaJet and NetJets are bringing first-time customers to the industry, but hardly in droves and nowhere near the numbers cited by Pellegrini. Many of the newbies are affluent millenniums, more interested in enjoying the benefits of a business jet rather than owning it. And many are earlier-generation ex-owners who found that the promised financial rewards of buying a jet and chartering it out are not what they were cracked up to be as an oversupply of aircraft compete for charter and residual values diminish at an alarming rate.

Aircraft brokerage Jetcraft predicts new business jet deliveries worldwide will total 7,879 aircraft worth $248 billion in revenues in the 10 years 2016 to 2025, with Europe accounting for 15% of deliveries, or 1,182 aircraft. But that’s not all growth as many of the aircraft will be replacements.

“The good news is that the appetite in North America for European aircraft in particular is extremely good,” says Jetcraft president Chad Anderson.

Of those 1,182 business jets bound for Europe, 959 will be mid-sized to heavy aircraft, according to Global Jet Capital. The largest demand is expected from the UK at 146 aircraft valued at $6.15 billion, and the second highest from Germany, with deliveries of 111 mid-to-large business jets. About 265 mid-to-heavy business jets currently operate in the UK, more than any other country in Europe.

Germany is second with 202 aircraft, followed by France with 131. If correct, the forecasts paint a gloomy picture for smaller-than-midsized jets.

Despite being the second largest market, Western Europe operates just 2,312 of the world’s 21,725 active business jets, and 1,058 of the world’s 14,359 turboprops, according to AMSTAT.