Despite quickly growing fleets in the Asia Pacific region, China and India, the maintenance, repair and overhaul markets in North America and Western Europe will continue to be the largest in the world, according to an analysis of Aviation Week Intelligence Network data.

The North American combined total MRO market currently is a $15 billion industry, based on a fleet size of 7,918 aircraft. In five years, the combined total MRO market size for North America is expected to grow to $16 billion on a slightly smaller fleet size of 7,730 aircraft, growing to $17 billion in 10 years on 8,221 aircraft.

Western Europe is now a $12 billion combined total MRO market, with a fleet of 4,906 aircraft, but both fleet size and the value of the MRO market are expected to grow over the next 10 years to $14 billion on 5,525 aircraft in five years and $17 billion on 6,447 aircraft in 10 years.

Although these two markets will remain the largest by both fleet size and dollar value through 2020, the growth story is in China, the AWIN data show. The combined total maintenance market in China today is $3 billion, and the fleet size is 1,571 aircraft. But both are expected to more than double over the next 10 years, to a combined maintenance market of $7 billion and a fleet size of 3,412 aircraft.

Similarly, in India, the market is expected to more than double over the next 10 years, although from a much smaller base. The combined maintenance market now is $748 million on 414 aircraft, but this is projected to grow to $1.9 billion in 10 years on 973 aircraft.

The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China and India, will see the total combined maintenance market grow from $8 billion now on 3,300 aircraft to $13 billion on 5,216 aircraft in 10 years, the data show.