While the steep decline in global travel demand may finally be leveling out, the airline industry’s future looks cloudier than ever. Hopes for a steady recovery are being dashed by the prospect of prolonged yield weakness and the new threat of rising oil prices. And even as airlines are scrambling to defer aircraft orders—particularly in Asia, where the pain is greatest—many still worry that surplus capacity could stifle long-term growth. Last year, airlines had some breathing space ...

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