Here is a notion that will make airlines smile and airframers cringe: oil at $40 a barrel. In a high-profile address to the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading conference in Phoenix, economist Adam Pilarski raised eyebrows with the prediction that crude prices—a key driver of demand for new, more fuel-efficient jets—will crash to $40 by 2018. Pilarski, a senior vice president at aviation consulting firm Avitas, argues that proven oil reserves now stand at 50 years of ...


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