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Magazine Issue

Aviation Week & Space Technology December 29, 2014-January 14, 2015

VOL. 176 NO. 47 December 29, 2014

Letter From The Editor

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The New Aviation Week & Space Technology App

Jan 09, 2015
The new Aviation Week app, now available for download in the Apple App Store, will allow subscribers to follow our award-winning journalists in a much more timely fashion.

Aerospace & Defense 2015

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Mid-Decade, A&D Faces Range Of Turning Points

Dec 29, 2014
All sectors of A&D have met with or are facing divergent factors that will determine much of their direction in the coming years.

Watchpoints for 2015

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Key Points To Keep An Eye On In 2015

Dec 29, 2014
Myriad factors, including geopolitical tensions, a cluster of commercial space setbacks, global airspace safety and programmatic blows mean that 2015 could prove tricky for all aerospace sectors.

Defense & Security

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Denial And Disinformation Will Shape Future Warfare

Dec 30, 2014
2014 was a year in which world peace broke out as long as your standard for conflict was declared and open war between nation-states. The actual picture was very different, with two major wars in the Middle East and a European state facing the real threat of being dismantled.

Defense Profiles

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China’s Rising Defense Budgets Stoke Regional Concerns

Jan 08, 2015
China regularly cites rising personnel and training costs as the reason for its growing defense budget; the buildup of a professional noncommissioned officer corps is a visible sign of such cost pressures. However, the country is investing in a broad program of advanced weapons development as it ratchets up military activities, in its “near abroad” and globally.
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Israel’s Defense Procurement Beset With Funding Shortages

Dec 29, 2014
Budget restrictions almost brought Israel Defense Force investments to a standstill in 2014, and 2015 is not looking much brighter.
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France Faces Defense Funding Shortfall In 2015

Dec 29, 2014
As the French armed forces take on new overseas contingencies, the defense ministry battles budget challenges on the homefront.
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European Defense Budget Decline Continues

Dec 29, 2014
Overall, European Union defense spending has been declining in real terms for eight years, despite an increasingly bellicose Russia
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Next Rearmament Plan Prepared By Russia

Dec 29, 2014
Russia is determined to continue to strengthen the military, which it exploits for foreign policy goals and internal propaganda, however shrinking budgets—due to soft oil prices and a slumping national currency—have cast uncertainty on these plans.
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German Defense Spending Grapples Maintenance And Readiness Costs

Dec 29, 2014
Germany’s long-term plan is to reach the NATO goal of spending 2% of gross national product on defense; in the short to medium term it will concentrate on using available funding more efficiently.
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Russian Actions Prompt Europe-Wide Defense Expansion

Dec 29, 2014
Sweden and Poland have notably stepped up their defense plans, but almost all of the European nations are boosting defense capabilities in light of aggressive actions in Russia
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U.K. Readies Itself For Another Strategic Defense Review

Dec 17, 2014
Maritime patrol aircraft and F-35 buy will be at the top of the list of concerns for the forthcoming U.K. Strategic Defense Review.
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Seoul's Budget Targets North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Dec 29, 2014
South Korea ups its defense funding request to guard against North Korea’s nuclear-weapons stock and begins budgeting for the 2025 launch of the KF-X.
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Japan Stretches Defense Purchases

Dec 29, 2014
Japan’s defense ministry seeks more funding but may not get it. New maritime-patrol aircraft, additional fighter jets and funding to support R&D programs in 2015 are in the budget request.
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Gulf States May Decide Future Of Western Fighter Programs

Dec 29, 2014
The Middle East states have varying degrees of influence in defense programs. The U.S. and Russia are poised to benefit, while manufacturers in Europe have been, for the most part, disappointed.
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U.S. Modernization Accounts Remain Under Pressure

Dec 29, 2014
When Congress began to cap Pentagon budgets in 2011, the process of recovering from a decade of failed, delayed and over-budget major procurements was only starting. Ever since, lawmakers and defense officials have been tussling over how to cull older systems to pay for future ones. And more of the same type of wrangling looks likely for 2015.
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Financial Restrictions And Delays Undermine Canadian Procurement

Dec 29, 2014
Much hinges on the outcome of the 2015 elections. In Stephen Harper’s nine-year run as prime minister, his team has attempted a number of ambitious procurements, but overall budget stringency has delayed these efforts. New faces at the helm could help or hinder the procurement process.
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Brazil Plans To Expand Fighter And Submarine Development

Dec 29, 2014
The model for many of the Brazil’s procurement programs is a combination of direct import and technology transfer.
article

India’s Defense Industry Strains To Meet ‘Buy Indian’ Goals

Dec 29, 2014
The push to have more defense industry-related manufacturing built indigenously is hurting India in the short run, but the benefits could outweigh the pain.
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Malaysia Evaluates Fighters, Australia Looks To New Submarines

Dec 29, 2014
The long shadow of China is having an affect on all other nations in the region. This looming presence bolsters the need for aircraft and submarines and is a key element in all defense budget planning.

Defense Systems

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Arming New Platforms Will Push Up Value Of Missiles Market

Jan 05, 2015
Despite budget crunch, the U.S. is eyeing a redesigned kill vehicle and Pacific radar for homeland missile defense.
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Pentagon’s New Kill Vehicle Strategy Expected Soon

Jan 02, 2015
The procurement strategy for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s new Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle likely will be released with the fiscal 2016 budget plan.
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J-10B, F-35 Nearing In-Service Debuts

Jan 06, 2015
Although the Lockheed Martin F-35 project will continue to dominate the direction of the global fighter market—and is slated for its operational debut with the U.S. Marines this year—new fighters in China and Russia are also nearing their in-service milestones.
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Tanker/Transport: Non-U.S. Suppliers Take More Of Market

Dec 29, 2014
The tanker/transport market is shifting with the availability of competitive alternatives outside of the U.S. increasing worldwide.

Aerospace Systems

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New Civil Engine Tempo Outstrips Military Developments

Jan 19, 2015
Commercial engines set for major service entry milestones in 2015 while major military initiatives bank on upgrades and foreign sales in the short term and research for the long term.
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New Helicopters Ready To Enter Market In 2015

Dec 22, 2014
The overall helicopter market, which has been fairly moribund in recent years, appears likely to get a boost from the loosening of civil regulations in China.
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China Poised To Become Biggest Buyer Of Unmanned Aircraft

Dec 22, 2014
UAS needs are shifting, and it seems like Asia is picking up the slack; agricultural and industry needs are likely to drive civil growth in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Top Technologies

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Defense And Space Technologies To Watch

Dec 29, 2014
Diverse technology leaps are abounding; Aviation Week outlines nine of particular interest.
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Top Technologies Feature Eight UCAVs

Dec 29, 2014
UCAV similarities are a result of an emphasis on stealth with long range and endurance.
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Business Aviation Sector Engenders Technological Advances

Dec 29, 2014
Many technologies first employed on business aircraft have morphed into wider uses.
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Civil Technologies To Watch

Dec 22, 2014
The sheer number and diversity of vehicles with which civil aviation will be sharing airspace has helped spur technologies, especially those that are efficiency-related.

Space Systems

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Increased Commercialization Evident In Launch Vehicle Programs

Dec 29, 2014
Increasing commercialization, the growing popularity of small satellites, and human spaceflight are factors that will drive the launch industry and result in production of a projected 759 launch vehicles worth $67 billion over the next 10 years.
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Technologies Promise Better Satellites—Smaller, Cheaper and Faster

Dec 22, 2014
Additive manufacturing and electric propulsion are among the new technologies promising improved satellite performance with lower costs.

Civil Aviation

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A320neo First Delivery Will Herald Era Of Reengined Derivatives

Dec 29, 2014
Airlines are showing by their orders that they are willing to accept the reengined derivative concept for narrowbodies as well as widebodies. And manufacturers in Asia are edging further into the civil aircraft production field.

Air Transport Profiles

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Rational Expansion Key For Asia-Pacific Airlines

Dec 29, 2014
The growth potential in many Asia-Pacific markets offers airlines an opportunity unrivaled in any other global region. However, carriers here are also facing the fact that to tap into the expected bonanza, they must remain financially viable in the short term. This is one of the challenges facing most Asian airlines in 2015—growing sufficiently to ensure they can grab their share of the action without creating capacity oversupply. Market data show that the balance tipped too far toward supply in 2014, and now a readjustment is needed.
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Europe’s Legacy And Regional Airlines Adapt To Changing Market

Dec 23, 2014
Aggressive expansion in Europe by the deep-pocketed Gulf carriers has been the topic of emotional debates among politicians and airline boards.
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U.S. Airlines May Compete More With Each Other In 2015

Dec 23, 2014
U.S. airlines completed one of their most profitable years in 2014.
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Latin America’s Airline Executives Urge Infrastructure Upgrade

Dec 29, 2014
The fundamentals are good for Latin American airlines, but further growth could be limited by airport and ATC constraints.
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Gulf Carriers Raise The Bar For Onboard Services

Dec 29, 2014
Newly enhanced service offerings from big three Gulf carriers likely to pose a challenge for competitors.
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Massive Belly Capacity Key For Air Cargo Market Bounceback In 2015

Dec 29, 2014
The air cargo industry is entering a year of many unknowns. Significant additional belly capacity will become available as more passenger widebodies are delivered, and lower fuel prices may lead to better margins, but only through rational capacity deployment.
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Russian Airlines Face Multiple Challenges In 2015

Dec 29, 2014
Ukraine-related sanctions, a weak currency and falling international passenger traffic likely to create serious problems for Russian airlines in 2015.

Air Traffic Management

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2015 Will Be Critical Year For FAA’s NextGen

Dec 29, 2014
Although major elements are now on schedule, FAA’s NextGen ATC system faces important tests in 2015 to overcome criticism from industry stakeholders.

Business Aviation

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Large-Cabin Aircraft To Dominate Business Jet Sales

Dec 30, 2014
Business aircraft manufacturers finding that size matters, as offering multiple mid- and large-size cabin models is critical to success as market rebounds.

MRO

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Narrowbodies Prompt Uptick In Engine MRO in 2015

Dec 29, 2014
The market outlook for MRO services in 2015 is bright and should see increased demand. Single-aisle jets with CFM56 and V2500 powerplants should help fuel growth.
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MRO’s Market Nuances In 2015

Dec 29, 2014
The commercial aviation MRO market value is predicted to be $56.3 billion in 2015.
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No Shortage Of New Rules For MRO Providers

Dec 29, 2014
Regulators ready to release new rules with the new year, including several that will indirectly affect Part 145 repair stations.
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Interfaces Could Be The Key To MRO Data Exchange, Not Standardized Data

Dec 29, 2014
Benefits abound for the digitization of data and automation of data-sharing practices, but implementing such strategies comes at a cost.
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Drop In Fuel Costs Could Help Airlines Upgrade Avionics

Dec 29, 2014
Fuel-driven retrofit opportunities and increasing needs for MRO collectively producing a positive outlook for the civil avionics market in 2015.
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Widebody MROs Gearing Up For Next-Gen Airframes

Jan 06, 2015
New-model aircraft will begin to generate more widebody MRO business in 2015-16, as trend moving more MRO work back to the U.S from Asia continues.
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Cabin Mods Dominate Narrowbody Airframe MRO

Dec 29, 2014
MRO providers finding growth opportunities in narrowbody heavy checks and cabin upgrades as operators seek to extend lives of existing aircraft.
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Top 10 Near-Term MRO Trends For 2015

Jan 07, 2015
We are betting on these near-term MRO trends for 2015.

MRO Links

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New Aftermarket Products To Heighten Safety, Lower Costs

Dec 29, 2014
New or enhanced products that are geared to the MRO community are featured.

Space

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As Antares Swaps Russian Engines, Orbital Hopes To Sidestep Politics

Dec 29, 2014
Orbital Sciences Corp. will buy a new rocket engine to replace the surplus Russian engines tentatively implicated in the Oct. 28 failure of an Antares launch vehicle with a load of cargo for the International Space Station.

Commercial_AWIN

Maintenance

Airline Intel

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Opinion: Many EU-Funded Airports Are ‘Poor Value For Money’

Jan 02, 2015
By 2035, nearly two million would-be flights—12% of total demand for travel—will never take place because of reduced airport expansion plans.

Going Concerns

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Going Concerns: A New Column About A&D Business Debuts

Jan 06, 2015
Going Concerns, a new column in Aviation Week, monitors the paradigm shift in the A&D sector. No one can know precisely where things are going, but we’ve seen enough before to know we’re heading somewhere new.

Defense

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Germany Restoring Order To Helicopter Fleet

Dec 29, 2014
The renewal of Germany’s rotary-wing fleet is being given a top priority as the country resumes spending on defense equipment. Officials have been charged with closing an €8 billion ($10 billion) deal, pending since March 2013, with Airbus Helicopters.
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BAE Systems Readying Hawk For T-X Showdown

Dec 29, 2014
According to company officials, the T-X Hawk is likely to feature an F-35-style single screen display in both the front and rear cockpits. It will also have a structurally different wing with fewer pylons—five instead of the current seven

Air Transport

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Aer Lingus Rejects IAG Conditional Offer

Dec 29, 2014
IAG eyes Aer Lingus, which would broaden its reach into Ireland and the U.K., but even more attractive to the group is the Irish airline’s 3% share of London-Heathrow slots. With these, IAG could stage more profitable long-haul flying.

Up Front

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Opinion: A&D Mood Swing Benefits U.S. Sales

Dec 29, 2014
The U.S. market again is playing a leading role in all major aviation segments.

Viewpoint

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Opinion: How To Attract More Women To Aerospace

Dec 29, 2014
Something clearly needs to be done to bring more women into aerospace engineering.

Feedback

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Letters From Our Readers - Dec. 29, 2014-Jan. 14, 2015

Dec 29, 2014
Beautiful, But Misidentified The aircraft “coming slowly together within the doors of the WWI-vintage hangar,” in the beautiful photograph taken by Richard Mallory Allnutt on page 67 in your annual photo issue (AW&ST Dec. 15/22, p.

Repair & Overhaul

Washington Outlook

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Washington Outlook: FAA’s UAS PSA, Cyberspeak And Budget Committee Shuffling

Dec 29, 2014
The FAA is not quite finished with its official rules for small unmanned air systems (UAS), those under 55 lb. In the meantime, the agency did produce a public service announcement aimed at people receiving UAS as holiday gifts. “Many will be excited when they unwrap the box and find an unmanned aircraft. How do you make sure you stay off the naughty list?” the video asks, proceeding to list a number of operating guidelines.

The World

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Falcon 8X First Flight in a Few Weeks

Dec 29, 2014
First flight of the Dassault Falcon 8X is set for the first quarter of 2015 following the Dec. 17 rollout of the ultra-long-range business jet at Merignac, France. Powered by three Pratt & Whitney Canada PW307D engines, the aircraft has a projected range of 6,450 nm (11,950 km) with eight passengers and three crew and an expected maximum speed of Mach 0.9. The cockpit will feature Dassault’s EASy flight deck, based on Honeywell Primus Epic integrated avionics with optional wide-angle head-up displays.
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Qatar Airways Takes First Airbus A350-900, Finally

Dec 29, 2014
"You are a demanding customer, sometimes a little bit too demanding,” Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier told Akbar Al Baker, the CEO of Qatar Airways. He…
article

Russia Weapon Sales Grow

Dec 29, 2014
Russia’s drive to reestablish a super-power-like weapons industry continues to pay off, as arms sales there continue to grow. A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) on annual trends and data in worldwide arms production and sales—excluding China, due to a lack of data—shows Russian companies’ business surging, while sales for those in leading NATO member states mostly dipped or remained the same for 2013 and 2012.
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Brazil Reels in a COD

Dec 29, 2014
Brazil’s plans to field an operational air wing on the aircraft carrier Sao Paulo has passed another milestone with the issuing of a $106 million, five-year contract to Elbit Systems of America to complete the upgrade work on four U.S.-surplus Grumman C-1A Trader aircraft. They will serve as carrier on-board delivery (COD) aircraft and refueling tankers.
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Angara 5 Flies

Dec 29, 2014
A five-engine Russian Angara-5 launch vehicle demonstrated its ability to place a two-ton payload in geostationary orbit Dec. 23, launching a dummy…
article

Woerner Taking ESA Helm

Dec 29, 2014
Johann-Dietrich Woerner, chairman of the executive board of the German Aerospace Center, is scheduled to begin a four-year term as director general…
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Kepler Back In Business

Dec 29, 2014
NASA’s Kepler space telescope has detected its first exoplanet since it started operating with only two of its four reaction wheels functioning,…

Correction

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Wrong Winner

Dec 29, 2014
An incorrect biography was published in the Dec. 15/22 article about winners of the 2014 Aviation Week Photo Contest on page 70. The winner of second place in the General Aviation category is Ricardo von Puttkammer of New York. To see this biography and those of other winners, go to AviationWeek.com/photowinners

Who's Where

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New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections (Dec. 29, 2014-Jan. 14, 2015)

Dec 29, 2014
Tom Williams has been named chief operating officer of the Airbus Group. He has been executive vice president-programs and succeeds Gunter Butschek, who has left the company. Didier Evrard, who has been head of the A350 program, has been appointed to follow Williams. Klaus Richter, chief procurement officer of Airbus and Airbus Group, has been promoted to a member of the Group Executive Committee. He also will be the national representative for Airbus in Germany.

Aerospace Calendar

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Upcoming Events (Dec. 29, 2014)

Dec 29, 2014
Jan. 27-29—Microelectronics Reliability and Qualification Working Meeting, The Aerospace Corp., El Segundo, California. See www.cvent.com/d/9rqnfl Feb. 1-3—Routes Americas. Denver. See www.routesonline.com/events/172/Feb. 1-3 Feb. 3-6—National Business Aviation Association Schedulers & Dispatchers Conference. San Jose, California. See www.nbaa.org/events/sdc/2015/