A major fleet turnover in the next decade combined with even more efficient engines coming to market on the newest aircraft will combine to keep the North American engine MRO market stagnant for the next decade, TeamSAI reports.

North American engine MRO will generate about $7.0 billion in work in 2013, TeamSAI SVP & Principal Tom Cooper said during Aviation Week’s MRO Americas event Tuesday. That number will rise to $7.2 billion in 2018, and slide back to $6.9 billion in 2023.

The driver? An 86 percent fleet turnover resulting from 3,447 forecasted new aircraft deliveries coupled with 2,646 retirements, Cooper says. The total fleet size is expected to climb from 7,304 this year to 7,790, but the turnover will mean fewer maintenance-hungry planes.

The retirement bubble stems from several factors, Cooper says. Chief among them was a delivery bubble from the late 1980s through the early 1990s.

In the next five years, huge numbers of MD-80s and 737 Classics delivered during that stretch will be parked. From 2018-2023, big numbers of early-generation Bombardier CRJs and Embraer ERJs are expected to join them, while A320 retirements will begin to accelerate, Cooper says.

More than 40 percent of the 6,197 global retirements in the next decade are expected to come from the North American market, Cooper says.