Expected changes to AMR Corp.’s scope clause provision with its American Airlines pilots should

result in large orders from U.S. carriers, says Paulo Caesar Silva,

Embraer’s president for Commercial Aviation.

There is “huge opportunity that we see now in the U.S. market,” Silva

says, adding that “we estimate that in the next few years there will

be 400-500 aircraft that will have to be acquired by these major

airlines in the United States.”

American Airlines will place “a huge order” roughly in the next year,

he says, noting “this will be the driver” also for others including

Delta Air Lines, to seek more regional jets in the 70-plus size range.

Silva also expects United Airlines will seek greater scope clause relief from its pilot groups.

Embraer is currently negotiating with AMR about the return of ERJ regional gets from its American Eagle Airlines division. AMR has said it wants to relax its strict scope clause, which effectively limits it feed to 50-seat jets, to 88-seat aircraft.

Growth in the U.S. could be critical for Embraer as other markets are softening with declines in gross domestic product growth.

Embraer outlook sees 4,125 90-120 seat regional jets sold through

2030, with most expected in the last decade, while the forecast for

the 61-90 seat segment is for 2,670 aircraft. The 30-60

seat market will be relatively quiet, with only 15 aircraft to be sold

in the next decade and 430 through 2030.

Deliveries to North America will dominate, with around a third of the

market or 2,350 units. Europe will be next, followed by China and

Latin America, predicts Embraer.