Sequestration Scenarios and China's Counter-pivot

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A little not-so-cheery U.S. Independence Day reading for you on the looming possibility of sequestration: Will Congress Avoid A $1T Budget Penalty?

If you were a betting person, which of the possible outcomes Jen lays out would you pick as most likely? For my part, I won't be surprised if we go right up to the deadline and then see them vote to bend the rules again, somehow.

Richard Fisher also has a discouraging perspective in China Counters U.S. Tilt Toward Asia.

He writes:

China's challenge during early 2012 was to exploit the Obama administration's intention to end its two-war planning strategy, by strengthening the potential for Chinese allies to tie down the U.S. in multiple conflicts. Prominently displayed in North Korea's April 15 parade was a large new missile on a 16-wheel transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) apparently manufactured by China's Sanjiang Hubei Special Vehicle Co., part of missile maker China Aerospace Industry and Science Co. (Casic). While China immediately denied making such a sale, the TEL is clearly a version of Sanjiang's WS51200 vehicle, that in turn was developed in cooperation with MAZ of Belarus, which makes TELs for Russia's ICBMs. 

Fisher continues with a longer analysis of the posturing we've seen in the South China Sea.

What do you think: Is China looking for ways to obstruct or impede the U.S.?

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