Richard Aboulafia

Richard Aboulafia

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

Articles
Opinion: The End Of The Airbus-Boeing Supercycle  17
Airbus and Boeing guidance, until recently, indicated that they expect a 17-year supercycle, but the end came after 12 as the world economy slows.
'Remarkable' Boom Comes To An End 
After a remarkable 12-year boom, world aircraft industry output growth sputtered to a halt in 2016.
Opinion: Trump’s Risks And Rewards For Boeing  41
Like much of the business world, Boeing is waiting to see how Trump’s trade policies will affect its exports.
Opinion: Plunging Twin-Aisle Orders Spell Future Trouble  4
The world has a sudden twin-aisle overcapacity problem: Orders have fallen precipitously, and the number of parked twin-aisles is rising.
Opinion: Why Low Oil Prices Are Bad For Business Aircraft  37
Business jet demand was once linked to a wide array of economic indicators, especially equities markets and corporate profits. Since 2008, these links have broken down.
Opinion: Close Air Support Debate Needs Strategic Context  160
Critics of counterinsurgency say it represents the triumph of tactics over strategy. Looking at the Air Force’s mooted OA-X and A-X2 procurement programs, and the A-10 retirement debate, one can see exactly the same issues in play.
Airbus And Boeing May Be Chasing Fool’s Gold 
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: The Iran Jetliner Illusion  32
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: Why Trump And Sanders Are Wrong About Free Trade  77
Demagogue politicians and pundits can’t rail against machines—the Luddite Rebellion ended 200 years ago. Instead, trade makes a convenient scapegoat.
Opinion: Why I Was (Probably) Wrong On C Series  70
Longtime C Series critic Richard Aboulafia says he might have been wrong about the Canadian jetliner after all.
Opinion: Boeing’s Single- Or Twin-Aisle Quandary  61
The choice is effectively between market potential maximization and operating economics: A single-aisle jet offers lower production and operating costs but would miss much of the replacement market; a twin-aisle could stimulate new demand but would be more expensive to produce and operate.
Opinion: Singapore Air Force’s Missing Puzzle Piece  29
Most countries struggle with the usual budget limitations and a broad array of fleet replacement and new aircraft needs. But in the case of Singapore, there is a very interesting capability gap that implies a significant short-term requirement.
Opinion: Aircraft Markets Downshift; Dark Clouds Loom  16
Sluggish aircraft industry growth is threatened by several looming macroeconomic trends, and the jetliner primes’ lofty production goals appear out of line with economic reality.
Opinion: Pratt Geared Turbofan Blazes Trail Of Disruption  85
The aircraft industry should enjoy the remarkable wave of disruption starting with the A320neo’s arrival. But after this wave, our industry risks stagnation.
Opinion: How Canada’s Aerospace Industry Dodged A Bullet With C Series  20
The situation with Bombardier’s C Series could have been far worse.
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