Richard Aboulafia

Richard Aboulafia

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

Opinion: Have Jetliners Escaped The Boom-Bust Cycle? 
Commercial aviation has enjoyed strong growth since 2004, and OEMs plan to continue the trend through 2019 at least.
Opinion: Why Sino-Russian Widebody Project Is Not Another Airbus  75
The story of Russia’s sole twin-aisle family, and the history of Russia’s previous aviation joint ventures, serve as a cautionary tale for this project.
Opinion: Halftime Of 20-Year Outlook, Market Prefers Smaller Jets  34
The lessons from the halftime of Boeing's 20-year CMO assessment are simple: the market prefers smaller jets and hates very large jets.
Opinion: Why Things Are Looking Up For Boeing Military Aircraft  54
Improved export and U.S. orders, the T-X competition and a bridge to future fighter aircraft programs have put the Boeing unit in a better position.
Opinion: Boeing’s Twin-Aisle Midsize Jet Faces Big Challenges  100
The drumbeat for a new Boeing midsize jetliner is growing louder. But beyond the idea of a new aircraft, things get complicated. The 797’s twin-aisle configuration is the big issue.
Opinion: T-X Is Lockheed’s To Lose, And Boeing’s To Win  75
For the Lockheed/Korea Aerospace Industries team, the advantage is in not having to bury any serious development costs in the bid price.
Opinion: The End Of The Airbus-Boeing Supercycle  19
Airbus and Boeing guidance, until recently, indicated that they expect a 17-year supercycle, but the end came after 12 as the world economy slows.
'Remarkable' Boom Comes To An End 
After a remarkable 12-year boom, world aircraft industry output growth sputtered to a halt in 2016.
Opinion: Trump’s Risks And Rewards For Boeing  41
Like much of the business world, Boeing is waiting to see how Trump’s trade policies will affect its exports.
Opinion: Plunging Twin-Aisle Orders Spell Future Trouble  4
The world has a sudden twin-aisle overcapacity problem: Orders have fallen precipitously, and the number of parked twin-aisles is rising.
Opinion: Why Low Oil Prices Are Bad For Business Aircraft  37
Business jet demand was once linked to a wide array of economic indicators, especially equities markets and corporate profits. Since 2008, these links have broken down.
Opinion: Close Air Support Debate Needs Strategic Context  168
Critics of counterinsurgency say it represents the triumph of tactics over strategy. Looking at the Air Force’s mooted OA-X and A-X2 procurement programs, and the A-10 retirement debate, one can see exactly the same issues in play.
Airbus And Boeing May Be Chasing Fool’s Gold 
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: The Iran Jetliner Illusion  33
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: Why Trump And Sanders Are Wrong About Free Trade  77
Demagogue politicians and pundits can’t rail against machines—the Luddite Rebellion ended 200 years ago. Instead, trade makes a convenient scapegoat.
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