Richard Aboulafia

Richard Aboulafia

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

Articles
Close Air Support Debate Needs Strategic Context  42
Critics of counterinsurgency say it represents the triumph of tactics over strategy. Looking at the Air Force’s mooted OA-X and A-X2 procurement programs, and the A-10 retirement debate, one can see exactly the same issues in play.
Airbus And Boeing May Be Chasing Fool’s Gold 
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: The Iran Jetliner Illusion  32
There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.
Opinion: Why Trump And Sanders Are Wrong About Free Trade  74
Demagogue politicians and pundits can’t rail against machines—the Luddite Rebellion ended 200 years ago. Instead, trade makes a convenient scapegoat.
Opinion: Why I Was (Probably) Wrong On C Series  70
Longtime C Series critic Richard Aboulafia says he might have been wrong about the Canadian jetliner after all.
Opinion: Boeing’s Single- Or Twin-Aisle Quandary  59
The choice is effectively between market potential maximization and operating economics: A single-aisle jet offers lower production and operating costs but would miss much of the replacement market; a twin-aisle could stimulate new demand but would be more expensive to produce and operate.
Opinion: Singapore Air Force’s Missing Puzzle Piece  29
Most countries struggle with the usual budget limitations and a broad array of fleet replacement and new aircraft needs. But in the case of Singapore, there is a very interesting capability gap that implies a significant short-term requirement.
Opinion: Aircraft Markets Downshift; Dark Clouds Loom  16
Sluggish aircraft industry growth is threatened by several looming macroeconomic trends, and the jetliner primes’ lofty production goals appear out of line with economic reality.
Opinion: Pratt Geared Turbofan Blazes Trail Of Disruption  85
The aircraft industry should enjoy the remarkable wave of disruption starting with the A320neo’s arrival. But after this wave, our industry risks stagnation.
Opinion: How Canada’s Aerospace Industry Dodged A Bullet With C Series  20
The situation with Bombardier’s C Series could have been far worse.
Opinion: After the C-17, A Tier Of Choices  91
Boeing could have sustained the venerable C-17 line profitably for at least few more years, but several factors dictated that closing it is the smarter way to go.
Opinion: Bigger Is Not Necessarily Better When It Comes To Aircraft  119
Market factors show the twin-aisles are very healthy now and will prevail as the aircraft of choice for most airlines going forward.
Smaller Still Makes Sense 
Even though demand for this jet and for Boeing’s 747-8 has been disappointing, many still say that growth will one day create a market.
Opinion: For Boeing, Big Losses And Missed Opportunities In The Tanker Market  64
Boeing has not won a single international KC-46 order thus far; the Airbus KC-30 now has 48 orders.
Opinion: Short-Term Memories Can Lead To Big Miscalculations 8
The jetliner supply chain might find itself the victim of someone else’s idea of success. As both Airbus and Boeing consider a further ramp-up of their A320 and 737 single-aisle jetliner families, everyone involved should consider the likely ramifications.
 

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