Douglas Royce/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com

Douglas Royce/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
Articles
Fighter Market Faces Declining Budgets, Escalating Costs 

The fighter market is forecast to see increased growth during the next decade, primarily because of the impact of the Lockheed Martin F-35/Joint Strike Fighter program. The U.S. military is by far the world's largest potential market for fighters, and the Pentagon has centered its future fighter requirements entirely on the F-35 JSF program.

Civil Rotorcraft Outlook Brightest Since 2008 

The civil rotorcraft market is in a recovery mode after dealing with the effects of a global economic slowdown.

Military Trainer Market Turns Away From Turboprops 

Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce 1,675 aircraft worth $21 billion during the next decade. Of those, 984 will be jet-powered and will be worth $15.3 billion.

Annual production of military trainers is projected to gradually drop to 126 aircraft in 2016 from about 200 in 2011. Production will begin to rise again in 2017, reaching about 160 aircraft by 2020.

Military Transports Ready for Growth 

Production of military transports is forecast to rise sharply during the next decade, especially in the latter half due mostly to the introduction of the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390.

Lightplane And Turboprop Market To Improve, Eventually 

From 2011 through 2020, general aviation aircraft manufacturers are expected to deliver 18,000 piston-engine models and 6,000 turboprops valued at $8 billion and $20.5 billion, respectively, which is encouraging considering the ongoing slump in output. However, the near- and mid-term outlook won't produce any cheers.

JSF Costs Key To Global Fighter Market In 2011

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program took up a lot of real estate in the national and international press and trade media in 2010, and the critical attention will continue into 2011. The sheer size of the program to supply the U.S. military and partner nations with a stealthy and relatively affordable strike fighter, coupled with questions about prime contractor Lockheed Martin’s ability to stick to the schedule and meet cost targets, makes it the No. 1 target of industry speculation.

A400M, KC-390 Will Reshape Military Transport Market

The military transport market will see production of almost 900 new aircraft over the next decade, but the raw numbers obscure major changes in the landscape. Production of the Boeing C-17 could end, leaving the strategic transport market to the Airbus Military A400M, while the Lockheed Martin C-130J will face a challenge for the tactical sector from Embraer’s new KC-390.

Turboprops A Bright Spot In Depressed GA Market 

Production of piston-powered general aviation (GA) aircraft had reached a plateau and begun to fall even before the credit crisis hit the world economy in the autumn of 2008. Deliveries plummeted in 2009 to a level not seen since the 1990s, and little improvement was seen in 2010.

Trainer Market Shrinking As Fighter Fleets Are Rationalized 

Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce slightly more than 1,600 aircraft worth almost $19 billion during the next decade. A number of programs are underway or are being launched to replace fleets built in the 1970s and 1980s—or in the case of the U.S. Air Force’s T-38s the 1960s—but the market for trainers will be much smaller than it was back then.

Civil Rotorcraft Manufacturers Hope For A Recovery By 2012 

During 2010, manufacturers began to report that conditions were stabilizing in the civil rotorcraft market, though the general consensus is that growth cannot be expected until 2012 or later.

Military Transports Market To Total 900 New Aircraft In Next Decade 

Manufacturers of military transports are forecast to deliver more than 900 new aircraft worth $74 billion over the next decade.

F-35 To Dominate Future Fighter Market 

During the past decade, world fighter production totaled only around 2,500 units, but over the next 10 years, annual deliveries are set to rise. Unlike the 1970s and 1980s, when large numbers of dedicated ground-attack aircraft were produced in addition to fighters, the modern market for combat aircraft is focused almost exclusively on multirole fighters that can handle both the air superiority and attack missions. The U.S. Air Force recently proposed building a new bomber, but this program is not expected to deliver an aircraft until the 2020s.

Turboprops Prosper, Pistons Falter 

Piston- and turboprop-powered general aviation (GA) aircraft manufacturers are poised to turn out more than 22,000 aircraft worth $25 billion over the next 10 years. This total excludes production of the new category of Light Sport Aircraft (LSA).

Civil Rotorcraft Market Looks Gloomy 

Deliveries of civil rotorcraft will decline sharply over the next few years as manufacturers suffer from a steep downward slope in demand caused by ongoing weakness in the world economy. The current downturn caps years of exceptional growth in a market that saw civil helicopter deliveries rise to more than 2,000 from a low of about 800 in 2002 in the six-year period that ended in 2008.

Uncertain Balance of Military Transport Production Power 

For the next few years, production plans for military transport aircraft are uncertain due to the impending shutdowns of some lines, startups of others and continuing manufacture of some venerable types.

The U.S. accounts for a huge share of transport production, manufacturing its own aircraft to fulfill its military needs. But the U.S. is joined in operations far from home by many other industrialized nations, some of which also manufacture transport aircraft to support their military operations.

 
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