Polish Air Force Expansion Plans Prioritize Combat Fleets

In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the skies over eastern Poland were full of NATO fighters conducting combat air patrols just across the border from Russian and Belarusian aircraft doing the same.

Polish Air Force Maj. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak was flying a Lockheed Martin F-16 on an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission when his radar warning receivers lit up: His aircraft was locked up by a fire control radar from an adversary aircraft.

• The first Polish F-35 is to be rolled out Aug. 28
• Warsaw has requested an F-16 upgrade package
• The country’s air force seeks organic airborne early warning and tanker aircraft
• The MiG-29 is slated to be withdrawn in 2027

“I was being locked by a Belarusian [Mikoyan] MiG-29 from across the border,” the Polish Air Force chief tells Aviation Week. “I looked down at the Link 16 picture and saw what it was, and there were so many aircraft, it was like something you expect to see in wartime.”

More than two years on, the events of February 2022 have reshaped Europe’s air forces, bringing investment into new aircraft, munitions stockpiles and infrastructure. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Poland, where the air force plans to introduce two new combat types to its front-line fleet over the next three years  and will likely decide on the purchase of a third.

The country also is bringing into service new uncrewed aircraft systems, an interim fleet of airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft and an unprecedented umbrella of ground-based air defense systems without an equivalent anywhere else in Europe.

“My fellow European air chiefs are impressed, but are they not jealous about the burden I carry,” Nowak says. “The air force is blooming—exploding in terms of the introduction of new platforms—but that is creating significant pressure on the training, personnel and infrastructure.”

Keeping on Track

Nowak’s top priority on a rapidly growing to-do list is introducing the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Orders for Poland’s 32 fighters—to be called Huzarz, following a public naming contest in April—were placed well before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and final assembly of the first has begun in Fort Worth, Texas.

Nowak sees the future F-35 fleet as a silver-bullet force that can penetrate the inevitable anti-access area denial bubbles around Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and neighboring Belarus, a capability that would impede air operations at Poland’s borders. But with the wider F-35 program facing delays, he is eager to keep Warsaw’s acquisition on track. Lockheed is holding up deliveries of aircraft until new software is matured, and the Polish F-35 training site, Ebbing Air National Guard Base in Arkansas, may not be ready to receive trainees.

“We had been fighting with the U.S. partners to put our pilots at Luke [AFB, Arizona], but Luke is packed, overloaded,” Nowak says.

Poland was planned to be the first F-35 customer to take its training to Ebbing, but with simulators not expected to be ready at the site, Nowak says his pilots will train at Eglin AFB in Florida instead and later perform the live flying at Ebbing.

“Delayed deliveries were my main concern,” Nowak says, adding that the Polish Air Force has decided to equip its first batch of four aircraft with the new Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) hardware but with an older version of the aircraft’s software so that pilot training can start on schedule. The TR-3 avionics package introduces new capabilities to the aircraft and enables the integration of new weapons.

Nowak says he wants aircraft ready for TR-3 hardware and software when Poland’s first F-35s arrive at the beginning of 2026.

Until then, the Polish Air Force will need to lean on its heavily tasked fleet of F-16s. 

Running Hot

Since the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the operational tempo for Poland’s fleet of 48 F-16s has skyrocketed. The F-16s initially were tasked with combat air patrols in the first weeks, burning circles in the sky near the Belarus border alongside NATO fighters. The fighters are now on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) air policing duties for both Poland and Slovakia, the latter of which lacks fighters after handing its MiG-29s to Ukraine. Before the escalation, Poland had one QRA mission. Now it has three—two with F-16s and one with the MiG-29—but these missions are a considerable operational burden and are depleting training resources, Nowak explains.

“If I am tasked to commit the F-16s for operational activity, such as QRA, then I lack the assets for advanced training,” he says.

The F-16s are being relieved partly by the increasing number of NATO fighters in the country, with deployments by the U.S., Italy and Turkey. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has pledged to send a squadron of Eurofighters to Poland for air policing backup in 2025. Nowak appreciates these efforts, especially with a Polish cadre of experienced F-16 pilots and new pilots straight from the air force’s college traveling to the U.S. to begin training on the F-35.

Losing F-16 pilots now for F-35 training will create “turbulence,” he says, and the air force is ratcheting up training in response. 

South Korean Factor

Training needs were one driver for Poland’s purchase of the Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50 fleet, making the country the first operator of the type in Europe. The first batch of 12, now delivered in their South Korean FA-50GF (Gap Filler) configuration, will be used along with the air force’s Leonardo M-346s to support training of new fighter pilots.

Nowak says the introduction of the FA-50 has been “smooth” so far, but it still will take one or two years for the fleet to mature fully.

One key advantage of the FA-50 is its similarity to the F-16. New F-16 pilots normally would require around 100 hr. of training to become familiar with the aircraft, but the FA-50’s cockpit, hands-on throttle-and-stick configuration and avionics symbology mean much F-16 training can be conducted on the lower-cost FA-50. Just 30 hr. of live flying is required on the F-16; 70 hr. can be performed on the FA-50.

“If a finance manager was going to optimize the training, this is how they would do it,” Nowak says.

Another 36 FA-50s are to follow, but in a more advanced configuration: FA-50PL is equipped with Raytheon’s PhantomStrike active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which Nowak hopes will enable the aircraft to use radar-guided air-to-air missiles such as the Raytheon AIM-120 Amraam. The goal is for the FA-50s to take on the missions of the Soviet-era MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-22s, including the QRA, saving the F-16s and F-35s for more advanced training and operations. Nowak also sees the FA-50 as the perfect platform for cruise missile defense.

A Fourth Fighter?

Beyond the introduction of the F-35 and FA-50, Poland could yet introduce a fourth front-line type. Current Polish defense plans call for a front-line fighter fleet of 10 squadrons, equivalent to 160 aircraft. Market research is underway, looking at options for more F-35s, more F-16s in a new-build Block 70 configuration, Eurofighter Typhoons or Boeing F-15EXs.

“We have researched the market, and we are waiting for our political leadership to give us guidance,” Nowak says. “The problem is there is a lot of demand on the market, and lead times are long. Poland cannot wait that long.”

He notes that lead times will be a major factor in Poland’s decision, expected by the end of 2025, to bring the aircraft into service by 2030.

The air force also wants to upgrade its F-16s to the Block 70 standard with an AESA radar. Warsaw submitted its request to Washington in March.

In addition to combat aircraft, the Polish Air Force also is investing in munitions stockpiles. In March, Washington approved Warsaw to purchase around 1,800 missiles, including Lockheed Martin AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles-Extended Range cruise missiles, Amraams and AIM-9 Sidewinders to equip its F-16 and F-35 fleets. This was followed in April by approvals for 360 Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles-Extended Range, worth a combined $5 billion in U.S.-made weaponry alone. Other weapons envisaged for Poland’s F-35 include the Kongsberg-Raytheon Joint Strike Missile and the MBDA Meteor ramjet-powered air-to-air missile.

“We need to integrate the best weaponry on this [F-35] platform,” Nowak says, noting that the Meteor selection is partially inspired by Russia’s use over Ukraine of long-range air-to-air missiles, including the Vympel R-77 and R-37. “We need a weapon to fight that threat.”

Support Acts

Poland also has been investing in uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), introducing the Bayraktar TB2 and leasing the General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers ahead of a purchase of the latter’s more capable MQ-9B SkyGuardian.

Poland was the first NATO country to acquire the Turkish-made TB2. While the system has limited use in nonpermissive airspace, it is proving its usefulness flying along Poland’s borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus.

The TB2 can use its electro-optical cameras to peer over the border—in the case of Belarus, watching for migrants trying to cross. Polish and European Union leaders have accused Belarus of manufacturing a regional crisis after luring thousands of migrants into Belarus and then transporting them to its borders with the EU. To peer farther across the border, the MQ-9 is more useful with its longer-range sensors.

The addition of these uncrewed systems is driving the need to reopen previously closed airbases to house them. “Currently, we have just a single base dedicated for UAVs, but that base does not have the capacity to absorb all the incoming platforms,” Nowak says.

In northwest Poland, Bydgoszcz, currently a commercial airport, and Zegrze Pomorskie, now a general aviation airfield, will house UAV units as the new platforms enter service.

The arrival of these new aircraft also is driving the air force to make better use of its airfields, with bases now expected to house at least two squadrons rather than single units, as they had previously.

All-Seeing Eyes

The conflict in Ukraine has prompted Poland to step up aerial surveillance, particularly after a series of airspace violations by Russian cruise missiles and Belarusian helicopters. In response, the Polish Air Force has repositioned mobile radars and ground-based air defenses.

Commanders also have found a need for airborne radars. Warsaw is acquiring a small fleet of surveillance radar-equipped tethered aerostats through its Barbara program and a pair of Erieye radar-equipped Saab 340s for the AEW mission, the first of which was handed over in September and delivered to Poland in March.

Nowak says the Erieyes are a temporary solution. “Ultimately, we want a permanent solution for our airborne radar need, and there are multiple platforms on the market,” he adds.

Although Poland is a member of NATO’s E-3 Component flying the Boeing E-3 Sentry, Nowak says that fleet is facing availability issues, especially with multiple flanks to monitor, and commanders face compromises about where they are sent. These factors are driving Polish demand for a national AEW capability.

Warsaw also is exploring the purchase of an organic fleet of aerial refueling aircraft in the class of the Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker-Transport (MRTT) or Boeing KC-46, as the aircraft need to be configured for both hose and boom refueling systems.

Poland had signaled it would join the NATO Multinational MRTT Unit but decided not to proceed just days before it was due to sign up. Nowak says the initiative now would be “difficult to join,” hence the effort to purchase a dedicated fleet of aircraft instead, albeit not until the beginning of the 2030s.

Poland also is pressing forward with its extensive ground-based air defense umbrella. RTX’s Patriot and its associated Integrated Battle Command System are enabling interfacing with Poland’s other air defense systems, which include the Narew system that uses MBDA’s Common Anti-Air Modular Missile (CAMM) Extended Range and the Pilica+ system for short-range and point defense. Pilica+ also uses the short-range CAMM and the locally developed Piorun missile and gun systems. Poland is taking lessons from Ukraine in shaping its air defense system to combat the envisaged mix of high- and low-end threats. 

Happy People

Perhaps the biggest challenges are those facing all air forces in Europe: personnel recruitment and retention.

To meet the needs of various acquisition programs, the Polish Air Force needs to grow its ranks to around 20,000 personnel from around 15,000. And just as in the rest of Europe, air forces are competing to keep pilots from leaving for a career with the airlines.

“We have started to improve the financial position for our pilots and maintainers,” Nowak says, noting that efforts are underway to reorganize legal aspects of military service to offer more flexible terms of employment. “My perception is that we lost a lot of pilots because we didn’t change as quickly as we wished. In the armed forces, there is a lot of inertia, and we don’t change as quickly as the corporates, and we paid the price for that.”

Recruitment is in a better place now, he says, as a career in the air force is seen as more rewarding than that of the army or the navy, with four candidates for one spot.

The war in Ukraine also is accelerating the withdrawal of Soviet-era aircraft from the inventory of Eastern Europe’s air forces. Poland is calling time on both the Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-22. It is the last European Su-22 operator.

“We have put a lot of effort in over the last 20 years to integrate Western fighters with the Soviet-era aircraft, but [the Soviet-era types] had so many restrictions in terms of avionics and weapons that you cannot employ standard tactics, techniques and procedures,” Nowak explains.

The MiG-29 looks set to soldier on in the air policing role until the end of 2027, alongside the F-16, but about half of the MiGs have been donated to Ukraine. The Su-22, meanwhile, is set to be relinquished by year-end.